# Expectation/assumption - Type: NTSB finding subsection - Path: [Personnel issues](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02) › [Action/decision](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/0204) › [Info processing/decision](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/020415) › Expectation/assumption - NTSB code: 02041525 - Cases: 51 - In the probable cause: 40 - Fatal cases: 8 - All cases: https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02041525/cases.md - Cases with it in the probable cause: https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02041525/cases.md?cause=1 - Page: https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02041525 ## Cases per year (in the probable cause / all) - 2008: 2 / 2 - 2009: 1 / 2 - 2010: 3 / 3 - 2011: 2 / 2 - 2012: 4 / 4 - 2013: 1 / 2 - 2014: 1 / 2 - 2015: 3 / 4 - 2016: 2 / 4 - 2017: 4 / 5 - 2018: 3 / 4 - 2019: 3 / 3 - 2020: 1 / 1 - 2021: 1 / 2 - 2022: 2 / 4 - 2023: 2 / 2 - 2024: 2 / 2 - 2025: 2 / 2 - 2026: 1 / 1 ## Defining events in these cases - [Loss of engine power (total)](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/341): 5 cases - [Wrong surface or wrong airport](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/284): 5 cases - [Fuel exhaustion](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/192): 5 cases - [Runway incursion veh/AC/person](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/320): 3 cases - [Near midair/TCAS alert/loss of separation](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/260): 3 cases - [Aerodynamic stall/spin](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/241): 3 cases - [Air traffic event](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/100): 3 cases - [Collision during takeoff/land](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/490): 2 cases - [Collision with terr/obj (non-CFIT) ](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/470): 2 cases - [Landing area overshoot](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/380): 2 cases ## Aircraft models (registry) - [Robinson Helicopter R44 II](https://openairdocs.org/model/robinson-helicopter-r44-ii): 2 cases - [Embraer EMB-145XR](https://openairdocs.org/model/embraer-emb-145xr): 2 cases - [Boeing 737-823](https://openairdocs.org/model/boeing-737-823): 2 cases - [Beech C-99](https://openairdocs.org/model/beech-c-99): 2 cases - [Taylorcraft BC12-D](https://openairdocs.org/model/taylorcraft-bc12-d): 1 cases - [Stits Flut-R-Bug SA6B](https://openairdocs.org/model/stits-flut-r-bug-sa6b): 1 cases - [Robinson Helicopter R44](https://openairdocs.org/model/robinson-helicopter-r44): 1 cases - [Piper PA46R-350T](https://openairdocs.org/model/piper-pa46r-350t): 1 cases - [Piper PA-46-310P](https://openairdocs.org/model/piper-pa-46-310p): 1 cases - [Piper PA-28-236](https://openairdocs.org/model/piper-pa-28-236): 1 cases ## Other findings in the same cases - [Decision making/judgment](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02041520) (Personnel issues): 12 cases - [Aircraft control](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02063040) (Personnel issues): 11 cases - [Identification/recognition](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02041510) (Personnel issues): 10 cases - [Monitoring other aircraft](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02021540) (Personnel issues): 6 cases - [Fuel](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/01071010) (Aircraft): 6 cases - [Incorrect action performance](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02041015) (Personnel issues): 4 cases - [Incorrect action selection](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02041010) (Personnel issues): 4 cases - [Angle of attack](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/01062042) (Aircraft): 4 cases - [Adequacy of policy/proc](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/04021015) (Organizational issues): 3 cases - [Tailwind](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/03034015) (Environmental issues): 3 cases ## Newest cases - [NTSB CEN26LA249](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/CEN26LA249), Jul 10, 2026: Cessna 150 (N3773J), Ellsworth, KS, substantial damage. Probable cause: The pilot’s inadequate preflight fuel planning which resulted in a total loss of engine power due to fuel exhaustion. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s self-induced pressure to complete… - [NTSB ERA25LA328](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/ERA25LA328), Aug 27, 2025: Cirrus Design SR20 (N88SP), Montauk, NY, substantial damage. Probable cause: The pilot’s failure to verify the wind direction and maintain an appropriate approach speed, which resulted in a long landing and subsequent runway excursion. - [NTSB DCA25LA163](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/DCA25LA163), Mar 20, 2025: Boeing 737-8H4 (N8315C), Orlando, FL, incident, no damage. Probable cause: The captain’s failure to recognize that the airplane’s location did not agree with the assigned departure runway as required per the Southwest Airlines Airplane Operating Manual, and the captain’s… - [NTSB DCA24LA318](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/DCA24LA318), Sep 25, 2024: Embraer ERJ 170-100 LR (N772MR), Chicago, IL, incident, no damage. Probable cause: The flight crew’s misidentification of the intended landing runway, which resulted in an approach to and landing on the wrong runway due to their planned continuation bias. Contributing to the… - [NTSB ANC24LA016](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/ANC24LA016), Feb 20, 2024: Hughes 369D (N690WA), Hana, HI, substantial damage. Probable cause: The pilot’s failure to ensure the passenger’s gear was properly secured before departure. - [NTSB OPS24LA011](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/OPS24LA011), Dec 9, 2023: Diamond Aircraft Ind DA20-C1 (N857PA), North Las Vegas, NV, incident, no damage. Probable cause: The local controller’s loss of situational awareness, inadequate provision of traffic advisory or safety alert information, and lack of positive control, that resulted in a near-midair collision. - [NTSB DCA23FA149](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/DCA23FA149), Feb 4, 2023: Boeing 737-79P (N7827A), Austin, TX, incident, no damage. Probable cause: the local controller’s incorrect assumption that the Southwest Airlines (SWA) airplane would depart from the runway before the Federal Express airplane arrived on the same runway, which resulted in a… - [NTSB WPR22LA353](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/WPR22LA353), Sep 20, 2022: Cessna 525B (N528DV), Pasco, WA, destroyed. Probable cause: The failure of the pilot to ensure the landing gear was extended before landing. Contributing was the pilot’s failure to fly a stabilized approach, and his configuration of the airplane that… - [NTSB WPR22FA338](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/WPR22FA338), Sep 8, 2022: Czech Sport Piper Sport (N126WK), Santa Monica, CA, destroyed, 2 fatal. Probable cause: The pilot’s inability to maintain control of the airplane during the landing flare due to the passenger’s excessive control inputs, which resulted in the airplane exceeding its critical angle of… - [NTSB ERA22LA377](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/ERA22LA377), Aug 10, 2022: Piper PA-28-180 (N7695W), Lehighton, PA, substantial damage. Probable cause: The pilot failure to ensure the runway was clear before landing, resulting in a runway excursion and collision with runway lights. NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008; earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes and aren't counted. Findings: https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings.md. Defining events: https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events.md. Phases of flight: https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-phases.md. Every investigation, filtered by finding, event, phase, state, year or model: https://openairdocs.org/ntsb.md (for example ?state=MI&fatal=1). NTSB's definitions: Accident and incident, 49 CFR 830.2 (https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-49/subtitle-B/chapter-VIII/part-830/subpart-A/section-830.2), CICTT occurrence categories (PDF) (https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/data/Documents/datafiles/OccurrenceCategoryDefinitions.pdf), CICTT phases of flight (PDF) (https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/data/Documents/datafiles/PhaseofFlightDefinitions.pdf), and NTSB coding manual, before 2008 (PDF) (https://www.ntsb.gov/GILS/Documents/codman.pdf). NTSB publishes no definitions for its findings, only their names. --- OpenAirDocs.org is an independent research project of [Contrail Labs](https://contraillabs.com/). It is not affiliated with the FAA or the NTSB. Source documents are U.S. government works in the public domain.