# NTSB CHI94LA056: Piper PA-24-250, N8003P, Mcintosh, SD, December 22, 1993 - Type: NTSB accident investigation - Classification: Accident · Fatal · Limited investigation · Final report - Date: December 21, 1993, 19:30 local (Dec 22, 1993, 02:30 UTC) - Place: Mcintosh, SD - Coordinates: 45.920734, -101.349227 (estimated) - Nearby events: https://openairdocs.org/map.md?lat=45.9207&lon=-101.3492&mi=10 - Phase of flight: [Enroute](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-phases/400) (OpenAirDocs' grouping) - Highest injury: Fatal - Injuries: 1 fatal - Status: Completed, report December 2, 1994 - Report: Approved by Office Director - NTSB case key (mKey): 9445 - NTSB case page: https://web.ntsb.gov/investigations/?ntsbnumber=CHI94LA056 - NTSB report (PDF, downloads): https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/9445/pdf - Page: https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/CHI94LA056 ## Probable cause was continued VFR flight into IMC and the failure to maintain clearance with the terrain. Factors associated with this accident were an inaccurate weather evaluation by the pilot, snow and the rising terrain. ## Sequence of events In NTSB's coding before 2008 (https://www.ntsb.gov/GILS/Documents/codman.pdf). - In flight encounter with weather, descent - light condition - dark night - weather condition - snow (contributing factor) - weather evaluation - inaccurate, pilot in command (contributing factor) - vfr flight into imc - continued, pilot in command (cause) - In flight collision with terrain/water, descent - clearance - not maintained, pilot in command (cause) ## Analysis THE PILOT OBTAINED FOUR WEATHER BRIEFINGS PRIOR TO DEPARTING ON A NIGHT CROSS COUNTRY FLIGHT. THE FSS BRIEFER TOLD THE PILOT VFR FLIGHT WAS NOT RECOMMENDED DUE TO A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WITH SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS WHICH WAS APPROACHING THE PILOT'S DESTINATION. DURING THE FIRST UPDATE, THE PILOT WAS TOLD THAT THERE WERE NO FLIGHT PRECAUTIONS FOR HIS ROUTE, BUT THE FORECAST ADVISED OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOUR MILES VISIBILITY. DURING A SECOND BRIEFING THE PILOT WAS ADVISED THAT A SATELLITE SHOWED A '... PULSE OF MOISTURE ...' WAS WEST OF HIS COURSE. THE PILOT LATER TOLD ATC HE WAS DESCENDING FROM HIS PRESENT ALTITUDE BECAUSE HE WAS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND WAS HAVING DIFFICULTY SEEING THE GROUND. THE PILOT DID NOT RESPOND TO ATC'S RADIO CALL. THE PILOT'S LOGBOOK SHOWED A TOTAL OF .4 HOUR OF INSTRUMENT FLIGHT TIME OBTAINED APPROXIMATELY TWO YEARS BEFORE THE ACCIDENT FLIGHT. ## Factual narrative HISTORY OF FLIGHT On December 21, 1993, at 1930 mountain standard time, a Piper PA-24-250, N8003P, registered to Gerald S. Olmstead of Berryton, Kansas, and piloted by a private pilot, was destroyed when it collided with a hill during cruise flight. Instrument meteorological conditions prevailed at the time of the accident. The 14 CFR Part 91 flight had been operating on a VFR flight plan with air traffic control flight following services. The pilot was fatally injured. The flight departed Colorado Springs, Colorado, at 1540. Before departure the pilot obtained four separate preflight weather briefings. During his first briefing, at 0759, the pilot was advised that a "... front has pushed through and is well southeast of your entire route ... ." The briefer said that scattered to broken clouds existed in Nebraska and the visibility was more than 20 miles. He said that clouds in South Dakota were between 5,000 and 7,000 feet above ground level (agl) with unrestricted visibilities. The briefer told the pilot that North Dakota had "... some station's IFR in fog and low stratus ... ." The pilot obtained a second weather briefing at 1014. The pilot was told there were no amendments to the original forecast he obtained approximately two hours previously. The briefer stated, "That really isn't any change I mean that's about what they expect all day." The pilot filed a VFR flight plan and concluded his conversation. The pilot obtained a third weather briefing at 1218. The briefer told the pilot that "... we'll have a weak cold front coming through probably around midnight tonight, nothing real significant for Colorado ... but we could have some snow shower activity up through ... the Dakotas." The pilot was told that North and South Dakota were forecast to have "... less than 50 percent coverage of ... snow shower activity ... ." The briefer advised the pilot that the forecast outlook stated "... marginal VFR or IFR conditions up to Minot area ...(and) after 1500 zulu they're expecting IFR conditions with moderate snow, blowing snow ... ." The pilot's response to the weather information was, "Yeah, so if a person left about four o'clock he could probably get in, there before that." The briefer responded by stating the forecast showed marginal weather conditions with snow showers and low stratus cloud conditions. He told the pilot, "... I wouldn't attempt VFR flight up into the Dakotas at all ... ." The pilot was advised if he waited an extra day he probably could fly around the back side of the weather system. During a fourth weather briefing at 1551 the pilot was advised that scattered to broken cirrus type clouds were tracking southeast at a rapid rate through northern Nebraska. The briefer advised the pilot that the Minot altimeter had been falling slowly all afternoon. The briefer told the pilot that a fast moving cold front was approaching the Minot area and it "... might be best for you to get underway shortly." The pilot responded, "I'm leaving right now." The pilot arrived at the departure airport and told the mechanic he had to depart for Minot because a storm was moving into the area the next morning. The mechanic stated he asked why the pilot was flying into conditions like that to which the pilot stated, he'd turn around if he encountered poor weather. He said the pilot obtained a weather briefing and told him that the weather was going to be in Minot around 2200. The mechanic said he told the pilot not to go and was told by the pilot, "Ah, I can beat it or I'll turn around." While en route, the pilot received two additional weather briefings. During the first briefing, at 1615, the pilot was advised of icing potential as he flew closer to Minot. At 1715 the pilot obtained a weather update. The briefer advised the pilot, "... there are no flight precautions for that route ... they are forecasting a development of ... four miles with light snow ... ." The briefer continued, "... there doesn't really seem to be any indication of it yet ... ." At 1814 the pilot requested, and obtained, a weather update for the area between Rapid City, South Dakota, and Minot, North Dakota. He was advised that the altimeter for Minot was 29.66 in. hg., and that the satellite showed "... a pulse of moisture in western North Dakota ... (and the) forecast for Dickinson call for occasionally IFR ceilings and visibilities through zero three zulu ... ." At 1844, the pilot contacted the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Air Route Traffic control Center (ARTCC) located in Denver, Colorado. ARTCC advised the pilot he was 48 miles southwest of Dupree, South Dakota. The pilot requested flight following service and reported he was flying at 8,250 feet mean sea level (msl). The flight was transferred to the Minneapolis, Minnesota, ARTCC about ten minutes later. At 1902 the pilot advised the ARTCC controller, "... it looks kind of cloudy" and that he was descending to 6,500 feet msl "... to keep sight of the lights on the ground." The ARTCC controller advised the pilot he was no longer in radar contact. The pilot asked the controller what his present position was from Bismark, South Dakota. He was told that he was 93 miles from the Bismark VOR and on the 189 degree radial. The pilot was advised that a no wind heading to the VOR would be about 010 degrees. The pilot advised the controller that he was "... in snow showers now and I have trouble seeing where I'm at ... ." As the pilot flew toward Bismark, he was advised that Pierre, South Dakota, had visual meteorological conditions. Approximately one minute later, at 1916, the controller advised the pilot that Bismark's "... weather is moving in from the west ... ." The controller advised the pilot that Bismark's airport reported a 1,100 foot agl broken ceiling with 12 miles visibility and light snow. The pilot acknowledged the controller's message at 1917. There were no further radio contacts with the pilot of N8003P. PERSONNEL INFORMATION The pilot obtained his private pilot certificate on November 20, 1991. At the time of his certification flight check, the pilot's logbook showed .4 hour of simulated instrument flight time. There were no other instrument flight entries made in the logbook. The logbook showed the pilot had 3.1 hours of night, cross country, flight training before his pilot certification flight check. The logbook entry for this flight stated, "DR, pilotage, visual illusions, hood work; unusual attitudes, landings w/0 landing light (13)." During the review of the pilot's logbook, several pilot operations comments were observed in the logbook entry's remarks section: "Cross country - evade weather changes ..."; "Ran out of fuel 1 tank start in air-refuel"; "Cross country - low level flying watch weather conditions change rain ..."; "Cross country T.S. light rain weather avoidance... "; "Cross country through level 1 rain showers ..."; "... storm evasion ..."; and "Cross country - weather emergency... ." METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION According to the weather information supplied to the pilot, a fast-moving cold front, along the Canadian/U.S. border, was moving southeastward, and the Minot, North Dakota, altimeter setting was steadily decreasing. The area forecast outlook for the pilot's destination was for marginal VFR weather due to low ceilings and snow. The amended terminal forecast for Minot showed a ceiling of 2,000 broken with light snow at 1900. Winds aloft forecasts for the Minot area showed winds 300 degrees magnetic at a velocity of 34 knots at 6,000 and 9,000 feet msl. WRECKAGE AND IMPACT INFORMATION N8003P collided with the top of a knoll on a heading approximately 340 degrees magnetic. Six additional ground collision points, over a distance of 350 yards, were observed before the beginning of the final ground scar. The final ground scar was approximately 115 yards long. ## Aircraft - Registration: [N8003P](https://openairdocs.org/deregistered/N8003P-2015-04-30), registration cancelled 2015-04-30, S/N 24-3243, built 1962 (OpenAirDocs) - Reported make and model: PIPER PA-24-250 - Registry model: [Piper PA-24-250](https://openairdocs.org/model/piper-pa-24-250) (registry code 7102404) (OpenAirDocs) - Registry engine: [Lycoming TI0-540 series](https://openairdocs.org/engine/lycoming-ti0-540-series) (registry code 41533, turbo-prop) (OpenAirDocs) - Category: Airplane - Serial number: 24-3243 - Engines: LYCOMING IO-540-C1B5 250 horsepower reciprocating - Damage: Destroyed - Flight: Personal, Part 91 - Registered owner: Gerald S. Olmstead - Airworthiness certificate: Standard, Normal - Last inspection: Annual, April 15, 1993 - Departed: 00V, CO. SPRINGS, CO - Destination: MOT, MINOT, ND - Flight plan: VFR ## Flight crew As NTSB recorded them. NTSB leaves out names. - Pilot; age 51; private; airplane ratings: single-engine land; medical: class 3, unknown; seat: left; toxicology performed; flight hours: 489 total, 175 in this make and model, 441 as pilot in command, 66 in the last 90 days, 10 in the last 30 days, 4 in the last 24 hours ## Weather - Conditions: Instrument (IMC), Night/dark - Wind: 250° at 7 knots - Visibility: 5 statute miles - Lowest ceiling: 2,800 ft broken - Temperature: 25 °F, dew point 21 °F - Altimeter: 29.00 inHg - Observed at: PIR, 85 nm away ## FAA reports on this event (1) The FAA's own accident and incident reports, matched to the aircraft by N-number and date (OpenAirDocs). - [Accident 19931221047089A](https://openairdocs.org/incident/19931221047089A), Dec 21, 1993: Piper PA24250, Mcintosh, SD, Destroyed, 1 fatal. Advised VFR not good. Flew into snow showers. En route collided top of a knoll known frontal system moving in. From the NTSB's public API. Aircraft are matched to registry aircraft by N-number and event date, checked against the reported serial number, make and model; the registry's history has gaps, so older matches can be wrong. Compare the reported make and model. --- OpenAirDocs.org is an independent research project of [Contrail Labs](https://contraillabs.com/). It is not affiliated with the FAA or the NTSB. Source documents are U.S. government works in the public domain.