# NTSB WPR20FAMS1: Piper PA28R, N4958J, Shelter Cove, CA, October 25, 2019 - Type: NTSB accident investigation - Classification: Accident · Fatal · Class 3 · Missing aircraft · Final report - Date: October 24, 2019, 21:23 local (Oct 25, 2019, 04:23 UTC) - Place: Shelter Cove, CA - Coordinates: 39.789165, -123.9711 (estimated) - Nearby events: https://openairdocs.org/map.md?lat=39.7892&lon=-123.9711&mi=10 - Phase of flight: [Unknown](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-phases/990) (OpenAirDocs' grouping) - Defining event: [Unknown: Unknown or undetermined](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/000) - Highest injury: Fatal - Injuries: 2 fatal - Status: Completed - Report: Approved by Office Director - Investigation class: Class 3 - NTSB office: Western Pacific Region - NTSB case key (mKey): 100609 - NTSB case page: https://web.ntsb.gov/investigations/?ntsbnumber=WPR20FAMS1 - NTSB report (PDF, downloads): https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/100609/pdf - NTSB docket: https://data.ntsb.gov/Docket?ProjectID=100609 - Page: https://openairdocs.org/ntsb/WPR20FAMS1 ## Probable cause Undetermined due to lack of available evidence. ## Findings NTSB's coded findings; those marked are part of the probable cause. - [Light condition: dark](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/03036020): Environmental issues › Conditions/weather/phenomena · Contributed to outcome (probable cause); cases with it: [Piper PA-28R-180, 4 cases](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/03036020/cases.md?model=7102809), [All aircraft, 448 cases](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/03036020/cases.md) - [Use of equip/info: aircraft control](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02063040): Personnel issues › Task performance · Pilot (probable cause); cases with it: [Piper PA-28R-180, 17 cases](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02063040/cases.md?model=7102809), [All aircraft, 9,295 cases](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/02063040/cases.md) - [Not determined](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/05000000): Not determined › Not determined · Unknown/Not determined (probable cause); cases with it: [Piper PA-28R-180, 5 cases](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/05000000/cases.md?model=7102809), [All aircraft, 2,247 cases](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-findings/05000000/cases.md) ## Sequence of events The events NTSB coded, in order, by phase of flight. The defining event best describes what happened. - [Takeoff: Miscellaneous/other](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/900); cases with it: [Piper PA-28R-180, 3 cases](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/900/sequence.md?model=7102809), [All aircraft, 1,556 cases](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/900/sequence.md) - [Unknown: Unknown or undetermined](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/000) (defining event); cases with it: [Piper PA-28R-180, 1 case](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/000/sequence.md?model=7102809), [All aircraft, 1,703 cases](https://openairdocs.org/ntsb-events/000/sequence.md) ## Analysis A witness reported that the pilot and passenger departed in dark night conditions with no visible horizon. After takeoff, the airplane made a left turn. Flight track data first identified the airplane about 2.8 nautical miles southeast of the departure airport and over the ocean. The airplane was at an indicated altitude of about 3,325 ft mean sea level (msl) and was transmitting a beacon code of 1200. The airplane maneuvered and made a right 360o turn followed by a left 360o turn, then reversed course, conducted a figure-eight turn, and headed south-southeast bound. It gradually climbed to about 6,000 ft msl before entering a left descending turn and rapidly losing altitude. The track data indicated that the airplane descended from about 5,800 ft to 2,850 ft msl in the last 24 seconds of recorded track data. A search for the airplane found no debris, and the airplane remains missing. The flight track data are consistent with a loss of airplane control. ## Factual narrative On October 24, 2019, about 2123 Pacific daylight time, Piper PA-28R-180, N4958J, was involved in an accident near Shelter Cove, California. Neither the private pilot and passenger nor the airplane have been located. The airplane was operated as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 personal cross-country flight. A witness at the Shelter Cove Airport (0Q5), Shelter Cove, California, reported that she observed the airplane depart about 2100 and noted that it was completely dark with no visible horizon. After the airplane lifted off the runway it made a left turn. No record of a preflight weather briefing, nor air traffic servicers were located, and no flight plan was filed. The airplane did not arrive at its destination, Gnoss Field Airport (DVO), Novato, California, and was reported overdue by family. On November 3, 2019, the search for the missing airplane was suspended; there was no wreckage debris located during the search. The Federal Aviation Administration found no evidence of automated dependent-surveillance-broadcast information transmitted from the airplane. Air traffic control flight track data revealed that the accident airplane first appeared in track data about 2.8 nautical miles southeast of Shelter Cove about 2104 and over the ocean. The airplane was at an indicated altitude of about 3,325 ft mean sea level (msl) and was transmitting a beacon code of 1200. The airplane maneuvered and made a right 360o turn followed by a left 360o turn. It then reversed course, conducted a figure-eight turn, and headed south-southeast bound, gradually climbing to about 6,000 ft msl before entering a left descending turn and rapidly losing altitude. The track data indicated that the airplane descended from about 5,800 ft to 2,850 ft msl in the last 24 seconds of recorded track data. The track data was lost about 2123. ## Aircraft - Registration: [N4958J](https://openairdocs.org/aircraft/N4958J), registered now, S/N 28R-30706 (OpenAirDocs) - Reported make and model: Piper PA28R (180) - Registry model: [Piper PA-28R-180](https://openairdocs.org/model/piper-pa-28r-180) (registry code 7102809) (OpenAirDocs) - Registry engine: [Lycoming I0360 series](https://openairdocs.org/engine/lycoming-i0360-series) (registry code 41515, reciprocating) (OpenAirDocs) - Category: Airplane - Serial number: 28R-30706 - Year built: 1968 - Damage: Destroyed - Fire: Unknown - Flight: Personal, Part 91 - Airworthiness certificate: Standard, Normal - Departed: 0Q5, Shelter Cove, CA - Destination: DVO, Novato, CA - Airport: 0Q5, Shelter Cove ## Flight crew As NTSB recorded them. NTSB leaves out names. - Pilot; age 44; injuries: fatal; private; airplane ratings: single-engine land; medical: class 2, with waivers/limitations; seat: left ## Weather - Conditions: Visual (VMC), Night/dark - Wind: variable at 3 knots - Visibility: 10 statute miles - Lowest ceiling: none - Temperature: 88 °F, dew point 16 °F - Altimeter: 30.04 inHg - Observed at: KUKI, 53 nm away ## FAA reports on this event (1) The FAA's own accident and incident reports, matched to the aircraft by N-number and date (OpenAirDocs). - [Accident 20191024020379A](https://openairdocs.org/incident/20191024020379A), Oct 24, 2019: Piper PA-28R-180, Shelter Cove, CA, Substantial damage, 2 fatal. The pilot and passenger departed novato, CA at approximately 1800PDT on a flight to Shelter Cove, CA. VMC and night conditions prevailed. Shelter Cove is an… ## Docket (3 files) The files NTSB released with the investigation on March 24, 2022, on NTSB's docket system: https://data.ntsb.gov/Docket?ProjectID=100609. 1.2 MB in all. - Witness statements (item 1, PDF, 4 pages, 172 KB): https://data.ntsb.gov/Docket/Document/docBLOB?ID=12125750&FileExtension=pdf&FileName=Witness%20Statements_Redacted-Rel.pdf - Air traffic control flight track (item 2, PDF, 3 pages, 1.0 MB): https://data.ntsb.gov/Docket/Document/docBLOB?ID=12124916&FileExtension=pdf&FileName=WPR20FAMS1%20Flight%20Track%20(NTSB)-Rel.pdf - Air traffic control FAA ov track data (item 3, CSV, 7 KB): https://data.ntsb.gov/Docket/Document/docBLOB?ID=12126316&FileExtension=csv&FileName=WPR20FAMS1%20-%20OV%20Track%20Data-Rel.csv From the NTSB's public API. Aircraft are matched to registry aircraft by N-number and event date, checked against the reported serial number, make and model; the registry's history has gaps, so older matches can be wrong. Compare the reported make and model. --- OpenAirDocs.org is an independent research project of [Contrail Labs](https://contraillabs.com/). It is not affiliated with the FAA or the NTSB. Source documents are U.S. government works in the public domain.