5-180 these recent transients appear to be narrow, directed mostly East of the Sun-Earth line, and should not have significant impacts on Earth.
Analysis will be conducted on any additional CMEs observed when LASCO coronagraph imagery becomes available.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity likely. A slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity remains for the next three days (11-13 Mar) as Region 2297 maintains its size and complex magnetic structure. The forecast remains unchanged for the previously mentioned CMEs as it appears that a combined impact of these transients may occur in the form of a glancing blow, mid to late on day two (12 Mar), with a passage expecting to last 24-36 hours at lower velocities.
Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period, peaking at 1,060 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton was at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (11-13 Mar). There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over the next three days (11-13 Mar) if Region 2297 produces significant flare activity.
Solar Wind .24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected ambient solar wind parameters through 11/0400 UTC. Solar wind velocities were steady near the 380 km/s range, IMF total field values were steady near 6 nT, while Bz varied slightly between +/-5 nT. Shortly after 11/0400 UTC, weak enhancements in the geomagnetic field were observed, likely associated with a transient passing just close enough to Earth to cause the minor disturbances.
Total field increased slightly to 10 nT, Bz saw a maximum southward deflection to near -10 nT, and wind velocities increased slightly to near 430 km/s for a short time. Most parameters have returned to near background levels with EPAM values leveling out as well. The phi angle was mostly positive (away) throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Near ambient conditions are expected to persist for the remainder of day one (11 Mar) through mid-day on day two (12 Mar) when the combined glancing blows from three CMEs are expected to arrive at Earth. Minor velocity and density enhancements are likely, with a greater magnetic response expected to be reflected in enhanced IMF total field and IMF Bz. The greatest response in Bt and subsequent sub-storms are anticipated for the early morning hours of day three (13 March).
Geospace .24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with an isolated unsettled period during 11/0300-11/0600 UTC.
5-181 .Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the remainder of day one (11 Mar) through mid-day on day two (12 Mar).
Unsettled to active levels are forecast for the second half of day two as the combined glancing blows from three CMEs are expected to arrive at Earth. By day three (13 Mar), G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are likely as the brunt of the CME impacts are expected to begin. A decrease to active levels is expected later in the period as impacts from the CME activity diminish.
Refer to NWS’s SWPC website for additional information on this product.
5.24.2.3 Three-Day Forecast.
A plain language, single-page forecast text product issued every 12 hours, at 0030 and 1230 UTC, with both forecast and observed criterion now broken down for each of the three NOAA Space Weather Scale categories. This product is designed to be a simple look at the observed and forecast of space weather conditions. A brief description of why conditions occurred or are forecast is also included for each category. Users requiring a more detailed explanation of events should refer to the Forecast Discussion. This product is available on the NWS’s SWPC website.
5.24.2.3.1 Format and Example of 3-Day Forecast.
3-Day Forecast Issued: 2015 Mar 11 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 11-Mar 13 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 11-Mar 13 2015 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 00-03UT 1 2 5 (G1) 03-06UT 3 2 5 (G1) 06-09UT 2 2 4 09-12UT 2 2 4 12-15UT 1 4 4 15-18UT 2 4 4 18-21UT 2 4 3 21-00UT 2 4 3 Rationale: G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day three (13 Mar) as the brunt of the CME impacts are expected to begin.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
5-182 Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 11-Mar 13 2015 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over the next three days (11-13 Mar) if Region 2297 produces significant flare activity.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 11 2015 0002 UTC Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 11-Mar 13 2015 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely. A slight chance for (R3 or greater) radio blackouts remains for the next three days (11-13 Mar) as Region 2297 maintains its size and complex magnetic structure.
Refer to NWS’s SWPC website for additional information on this product.
5.24.2.4 Other Space Weather Products.
SWPC provides many products on their website, some of which can be of interest to aviation users. These products and displays will continue to evolve and thus it is not practical to provide all the various product examples along with their description. Instead users should refer to the product descriptions provided on the SWPC website. It is important to state these products are intending for trained users, are not aviation-specific, and subject to change by the NWS.
5.24.3 Use.
At the time of this publication, there are no aviation-specific forecasts or advisory products, such as SIGMETs or AIRMETs, issued for space weather events. Until such time as aviation-specific space weather products are developed, pilots can refer to SWPC’s Web page as well as their space weather alerts, watches, warnings, forecasts and forecast discussions, utilizing the NOAA’s Space Weather Scales, for situational awareness with space weather.
SWPC has a free subscription service that provides a wide range of space weather products, including alerts, warnings, watches, and forecasts that users can receive through email within moments of being issued. Details on this service can be found on SWPC’s website.
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5.25 Soaring Forecast.
5.25.1 Issuance.
Select NWS WFOs issue soaring forecasts. These are automated forecasts primarily derived from the radiosonde observation or model generated soundings (see paragraph 3.6).
5.25.2 Content and Format.
The content and format of soaring forecasts vary with the NWS WFO providing the forecast, based on the needs of their soaring community. It is beyond the scope of this AC to describe all the many variations of soaring forecasts and their content. Soaring pilots should consult with the NWS WFO in their soaring area for more information.
5.25.3 Example.
The following example is Albuquerque, NM:
SOARING FORECAST FOR ABQ DATE... 04/19/15...12Z THERMAL INDEX....MINUS SIGN INDICATES INSTABILITY 5000 FT ASL........-10.0 6000 FT ASL........-9.0 10000 FT ASL........-3.5 15000 FT ASL........0.0 HEIGHT OF THE -3 INDEX....10800 FT ASL TOP OF THE LIFT...........14600 FT ASL ABQ MAX TEMPERATURE.......67 DEGREES F FIRST USABLE LIFT.........59 DEGREES F MAXIMUM LIFT..............509 FT/MIN
UPPER LEVEL WINDS 5000 FT ASL..../// DEGREES AT // KNOTS 10000 FT ASL....330 DEGREES AT 35 KNOTS IT IS EMPHASIZED...THIS SOARING FORECAST INFORMATION IS VALID ONLY FOR THE RAOB SITE AREA AND FREQUENTLY WILL NOT APPLY TO OTHER AREAS IN THE STATE.
6-1 CHAPTER 6. AVIATION WEATHER TOOLS Aviation w eather tools are Web-based applications that incorporate multiple weather products into a Web-based interactive display. Chapter 6 will describe two tools, the helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) Tool and the Flight Path Tool. Both of these tools can be found on the Aviation Weather Center’s (AWC) website at https://www.aviationweather.gov.
Phraseology Change.
The term Emergency Medical Service/Helicopter (EMS/H) or HEMS is obsolete. It has been replaced with helicopter air ambulance (HAA). Refer to AC 135-14, Helicopter Air Ambulance Operations, for terminology changes associated with this name change At the moment, there will be no change to the HEMS Tool phraseology. HAA operators should use the HEMS Tool developed by University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Foundation/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and operated by AWC as they always have until a new tool or tool name has been developed.
6.1 Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) Tool.
The HEMS Tool is specifically designed to display weather conditions for short-distance and low-altitude flights that are common for emergency first responders. HAA operators are extremely sensitive to changing and/or adverse weather conditions and need weather information presented for non-weather experts quickly and effectively. To meet this need, the Flight Path Tool on the AWC’s website was adapted and simplified to display high-resolution grids of critical weather parameters, particularly cloud ceiling and surface visibility. Using a highly interactive and intuitive tool that focuses on small, localized regions, HAA operators gain critical weather awareness to make all their flights safe for crews and patients.
6.1.1 Availability.
The HEMS Tool is continuously updated and available through the AWC’s website at https://www.aviationweather.gov/hemst.
6.1.2 Content.
The HEMS Tool can overlay multiple grids of various weather parameters, as well as NWS textual weather observations and forecasts including: ceiling, visibility, flight category, winds, relative humidity, temperature, icing, satellite, radar (base and Composite Reflectivity), Airmen’s Meteorological Information (AIRMET) and significant meteorological information (SIGMET), Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METAR), Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF), Pilot Weather Reports (PIREP), NWS hazards, and Center Weather Advisories (CWA). Some gridded products
(e.g., temperature, relative humidity, winds, and icing) are three-dimensional (3-D).
Other gridded products are two-dimensional (2-D) and may represent a “composite” of a 3-D weather phenomenon or a surface weather variable, such as horizontal visibility. The tool also displays relevant NWS textual weather observations and forecasts needed for aviation. These data are either points of observed or forecast weather, often at airports, or regions of hazardous weather represented by 2-D polygons.
6-2 The default displays the most recent analysis of flight category; colored flight category dots are selected airports, radar loops, SIGMETs, and recent PIREPs. The map can be panned in any direction and zoomed by using the “+/-” buttons or the mouse scroll wheel.
All 3-D data are interpolated to above ground level (AGL) altitudes and can be sliced horizontally on 1,000-foot intervals up to 5,000 feet (ft). All data can be animated from 6 hours before to 6 hours after the current time.
6.1.2.1 Visibility and F light Category.
Three products are available for the ceiling and visibility analysis (CVA) (see paragraph 4.2.1). The ceiling, visibility, and flight category weather products originate from the CVA product, which is a gridded analysis of ceiling and visibility based on surface observations and satellite imagery, and is updated approximately every 5 minutes. The ceiling and visibility are used together to classify the flight category as visual flight rules (VFR), Marginal Visual Flight Rules (MVFR), instrument flight rules (IFR), and low instrument flight rules (LIFR). Due to limitations of the observations, the grid cells are approximately 5 kilometers (km) apart at best. In data sparse regions, the best possible estimate of ceiling and visibility is assumed from the nearest surrounding data and may not represent the actual conditions at a specific point. Analyses of these fields are not available if the time slider is moved into the future. Figure 6-1, HEMS Ceiling with Flight Category Overlay—Example, Figure 6-2, HEMS Visibility with Flight Category Overlay—Example, and Figure 6-3, HEMS Flight Category with Flight Category Overlay—Example, are exam ples of the different overlays.
By default, the HEMS Tool displays the most recent analysis of flight category colored distinctly for VFR, MVFR, IFR, and LIFR. The classifications (see Table 6-1, Flight Categories) are defined by certain cloud base ceilings and surface visibility values.
Table 6-1. Flight Categories
Figure 6-1. HEMS Ceiling with Flight Category Overlay-Example Helicopter Emergency Medical Services Tool INFO Feedback Weather Overlays View Configure 1555 UTC 7 May 2015 _ Satellite
• Radar Chevenge
• None
• Flight Category
• Ceiling
• Visibility Icing Severity >> Icing Probability >> Temperature >> Rel Humidity >> Wind speed >>
OKLAROMA MEXICO
CRAMENTO 100 ml Ceiling o RAP Windbarb at 1000 AGL SIGMET CWA GAIRMET OrbH FIt Cat: •MVFR • IFR • LIFR PIREP Turb: ALGT AMOD A SEV PIREP Ice: LGT If MOD (I SEV Obscure 0' 500' 1000' 3000' Note: Ceilings above 3,000 ft are transparent.
Figure 6-2. HEMS Visibility with Flight Category Overlay-Example Helicopter Emergency Medical Services Tool INFO Feedback Weather Overlays View Configure 1555 UTC 7 May 2015
- Satellite
- Radar Che
- None
• Flight Category
• Ceiling.
• Visibility Icing Severity >> Icing ProDaDIty >> Temperature >> Rel Humidity >> Wind speed >>
OKLAROMA окі пота City MEXICO Source: Ess gubbock
SACRAMENJO 100 mi Visibility RAP Windbarb at 1000 A.
SIGMET CWA GAIRMET urbHt PabLo LEWS stend Dang the LER FIt Cat: •MVFR • IFR • LIFR PIREP Turb: ALGT AMOD A SEV PIREP Ice: L LGT / MOD (p) SEV Note: Visibilities above 5 miles (mi) are transparent.
6-3
6-4 Figure 6-3. HEMS Flight Category with Flight Category Overlay—Example
Note: The flight category is colored for MVFR, IFR, and LIFR. The VFR areas are transparent. Yellow is used instead of red for coloring because it’s more difficult to distinguish between red and magenta on the image backgrounds.
6.1.2.2 Radar.
The HEMS Tool uses the Multi-Radar/Multi-System (MRMS) mosaic produced by NWS. The radar image combines more than 140 radars from around the country into a single image. Additional post-processing is performed to remove some ground clutter and Anomalous Propagation (AP).
Due to limitations of the radar, such as blockage by mountains, spacing of radar locations, and over processing of clutter and AP, there may be precipitation when radar data does not detect or show a complete weather picture.
The image used in HEMS is the lowest reflectivity scan from the nearest radar. This is a 1 km image for the continental United States (CONUS). Like the satellite images, the radar mosaic is sliced up and put into the tile cache to provide the maximum resolution and optimal transmission bandwidth. The tile cache is only updated every 10 minutes (MRMS data is available every 2 minutes).
The HE MS display (see Figure 6-4, HEMS Radar Display—Example) incorporates the latest radar image plus the previous four into a loop of radar data s howing the progression of precipitation echoes. By moving the time
slider into the past, the radar loop will always show the latest five images ending in the time shown in the slider box.
Figure 6-4. HEMS Radar Display-Example Helicopter Emergency Medical Services Tool INFO Feedback Weather Overlays View Configure 1557 UTC 7 May 2015
• Radar - Satellite 3 Cheyenne NEBRASK
• None
• Flight Category
• Ceiling
• Visibility.
Icing Severity >> Icing Probability COLORADO KANSAS Rel Humidity >> Wind speed >>
N D STATE
COLOR, IDO Santa Fe OKLAHOMA Albuquerque Oklahoma City er
NEW MEXICO 100 km RAMENTO 100 mil RAP Windbarb at 1000'AGL
SIGMET CWA GAIRMET FIt Cat: •MVFR • IFR • LIFR PIREP Turb: ALGT AMOD A SEV PIREP Ice: LJ LGT (/ MOD H SEV
6.1.2.3 Satellite.
The HEMS Tool uses a global satellite mosaic constructed from the five geostationary satellites plus the appropriate polar global imagery. The resulting image is created every 30 minutes from the available imagery.
Images are sliced up and provided through a progressive tile cache to optimize data transmission and image resolution.
Note: A limitation of the satellite imagery is that the European Meteosat imagery is only available every 3 hours; therefore, imagery over Europe and Central Asia may be up to 3 hours old.
There are three types of satellite imagery available in HEMS:
1. Infrared (IR): This is a 10 km image where brighter grays show colder cloud temperatures (see Figure 6-5, HEMS Satellite Imagery-Example).
2. Visible: This is a 5 km image showing visible reflection from clouds and the ground surface. Consequentially, these images will be black at night.
3. Water Vapor: This is a 10 km image where brighter grays show higher areas of water vapor.
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6-6 Figure 6-5. HEMS Satellite Imagery—Example
6.1.2.4 Icing.
The i cing severity product is a 3-D product and provides depictions at specified altitudes AGL at 1,000 ft-intervals up to 5,000 ft. In regions of steep terrain, these altitudes may have significant deviations from actual height above terrain given the limiting factor of grid cell size, which is approximately 13 km, and the resolution of the topography in the model. The icing severity product (see Figure 6-6, HEMS Icing Severity—Example) combines a multitude of weather observations (e.g., temperature, humidity, satellit e, observed surface weather and pilot reports, radar data) to diagnose areas of expected trace, light, moderate, and heavy icing. Separate overall icing probability (from 5 to 85 percent) (see Figure 6-7, HEMS Icing Probability—Example) i s provided as well.
These products originate from the Current Icing Product (CIP) and Forecast Icing Product (FIP) (see paragraph 5.21.1). These products start with data from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model, which is run hourly. FIP has forecasts at 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, an d 18 hours. The time slider will use CIP for current and past times and time-adjusted FIP for future times.
Figure 6-6. HEMS Icing Severity-Example Helicopter Emergency Medical Services Tool INFO Feedback Weather Overlays View Configure 2023 UTC 8 May 2015 LSatellte
• None
•Flight Category celling Icing Severity >> OTUOU AGI @2000' AGL Icing Probability @3000' AGL Temperature >> @4000' AGL NOR TH D
•@5000' AGL Rel Humidity >> Wind speed >> OREGON
NEBRASKA Denver af 200 KANSAS ALL 200 mil Icing Severity at 5000 AGL NITED STAT E S RAP Windbarb at 5000'AGL SIGMET FIt Cat: •MVFR • IFR • LIFR PIREP Turb: ALGT AMOD A SEV PIREP Ice: LJ LGT / MOD (H/ SEV Trace Light Moderate Heavy
HEMS PDD The severity is colored in shades of blue, with the lightest for trace and the darkest for heavy.
Figure 6-7. HEMS Icing Probability- -Example Helicopter Emergency Medical Services Tool INFO Feedbac Weather Overlays Configure 2023 UTC 8 May 2015 Satellite Jone Flight Category ) Ceiling Visibility Icing Severity >> Icing Probability @1000' AGL 02000 ACL Temperature >> OSUOU AGL Rel Humidity >> 04000 AGL
•@5000' AGL Wind speed >>
ORE GOI
NEBRASKA Devel Kansas
ETED STAT ES AL 200 mi Icing Probability at 5000'AGL RAP Windbarb at 5000'AGL
SIGMET CWA GAIRMET FIt Cat: •MVFR • IFR • LIFR PIREP Turb: \ LGT AMOD A SEV PIREP Ice: L LGT (/ MOD ( SEV 15 25 35 45 55 65 75
HEMS PDD The probability is colored in shades starting at blue (5 percent), through yellow (50 percent), to orange (>75 percent).
6-7
6.1.2.5 Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Wind Speed.
Temperature (see Figure 6-8, HEMS Temperature-Example), relative humidity (see Figure 6-9, HEMS Relative Humidity-Example), and wind speed data (see Figure 6-10, HEMS Wind Speed with Windbarb-Example) is derived from the AGL grids provided as part of the RAP model output.
Data are presented on 1,000 ft AGL increments to 5,000 ft. These grids are available from the RAP model output every hour and forecasts run 7 hours into the future. If the time slider is moved into the past, the RAP analysis for that hour is shown.
Figure 6-8. HEMS Temperature-Example Helicopter Emergency Medical Services Tool INFO Feedback Weather Overlays View Configure 1605 UTC 7 May 2015
• Satellite
- Radar
• None
• Flight Category.
• Ceiling
• Visibility.
Icing Severity >> Icing Probability >> Temperature >> @1000 AGL Rel Humidity >> • @2000' AGL Wind speed >> • @3000' AGL
• @4000' AGL
• @5000' AGL Source: Esri 500 km 500 mi RAP Temperature at 5000'AGL RAP Windbarb at 5000 AGL
SIGMET CWA FIt Cat: •MVFR • IFR O LIFR PIREP Turb: ALGT AMOD A SEV PIREP Ice: LJ LGT (/ MOD (p) SEV -40-30-20-10 0 10 30 The temperature data are colored from blues for the coldest temperatures to reds for the warmest. Delineation between light blue and yellow is used to show the freezing level.
6-8