5-36 Figure 5-22. Day 1 Categorical Convective Outlook Graphic Example
Fi gure 5-23. Categorical Outlook Legend for Days 1-3 Convective Outlook Graphic Example
For mat and Example of the Categorical Convective Outlook Narrative.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK...ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
5-37 ...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BRANCH OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
AS LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MODELS INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS.
WITHIN THIS LATTER REGIME...ONE NOTABLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MAY CONSOLIDATE WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
INITIALLY STALLED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU AND CENTRAL PLAINS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN A MORE RAPID SOUTHWARD SURGE...IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. MODEL SURFACE DEW
POINT FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAY STILL BE AT LEAST A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT SIZABLE CAPE /PERHAPS AT OR ABOVE 2000 J PER KG/ WITHIN AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 20-22Z NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA. THIS MAY INITIALLY INCLUDE DISCRETE STORMS...BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM SHORTLY THEREAFTER ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LATTER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT...AND STRONGER STORMS PROBABLY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUPPORTS INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...WHILE THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AND TENDS TO UNDERCUT
5-38 CONVECTION...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME HOW LONG THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
..KERR/MOSIER.. 03/25/2015
5.6.2 Watch Notification Messages.
The SPC issues Aviation Watch Notification Messages (SAW) to provide an area threat alert for the aviation meteorology community to forecast organized severe thunderstorms that may produce tornadoes, large hail, and/or Convective damaging winds as indicated in Public Watch Notification Messages within the CONUS.
SPC issues three types of Watch Notification Messages: SAW, Public Severe Thunderstorm Watch Notification Message, and Public Tornado Watch Notification Message. They are available on the SPC website.
The SAW was formerly known as the Alert Severe Weather Watch Bulletin (AWW). The NWS no longer uses that title or acronym for this product. The NWS uses the acronym SAW for the Aviation Watch Notification Message, but retains AWW in the product header for processing by weather data systems. The NWS uses the acronym AWW for their Aviation Weather Warning product, which is a completely different product from the SAW.
The Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watch Notification Messages were formerly known as the Severe Weather Watch Bulletins (WW). The NWS no longer uses that title or acronym for this product but retains WW in the product header for processing by weather data systems.
It is important to note the difference between a Severe Thunderstorm (or Tornado) Watch and a Severe Thunderstorm (or Tornado) Warning. A watch means severe weather is possible during the watch valid time, while a warning means that severe weather has been observed or is expected within the hour. Only the SPC issues Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches, while only NWS WFOs issue Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings.
5.6.2.1 Aviation Watch Notification Message (SAW).
The SPC issues SAW to provide an area threat alert for the aviation meteorology community to forecast organized severe thunderstorms that may produce tornadoes, large hail, and/or Convective damaging winds as indicated in Public Watch Notification Messages.
The SA W product is an approximation of the area in a watch. For the official area covered by a watch, see the corresponding Public Watch product. To illustrate, Figure 5-24, Aviation Watch (polygon) Compared to Public Watch (shaded) Example, is an example of the Aviation Watch (polygon) compared to the P ublic Watch (shaded). Also, the SAW is easier to communicate verbally over the radio and telephone than reciting the entire Public Watch product.
5-39 Figure 5-24. Aviation Watch (polygon) Compared to Public Watch (shaded) Example
5.6.2.1.1 Issuance.
The SPC will issue the SAW after the proposed Convective watch area has been collaborated with the affected NWS WFOs defining the approximate areal outline of the watch.
Watch Notification Messages are nonscheduled, event-driven products valid from the time of issuance to expiration or cancellation time. Valid times are in UTC. SPC will correct watches for formatting and grammatical errors.
When tornadoes or severe thunderstorms have developed, the local NWS WFO will issue the warnings for the storms.
5.6.2.1.2 Format and Example of an Aviation Watch Notification Message (SAW).
SPC forecasters may define the area as a rectangle or parallelogram (X mi either side of the line from point A to point B) or (X miles north and south or east and west of the line from point A to point B). Distances of the axis coordinates should be in sm. The aviation coordinates referencing VOR locations and state distances will be in nautical miles (NM). Valid times will be in UTC. The watch half width will be in sm. The SAW will contain hail
5-40 size in inches or ½ in (forecaster discretion for tornado watches associated with hurricanes) surface and aloft, surface Convective wind gusts in knots, maximum cloud tops and the Mean Storm Motion Vector, and replacement information, if necessary.
The SAW will refer users to the accompanying public product, known as the Watch Outline Update (WOU) message, which provides the names of all counties or parishes in the watch area. Note the letter “n” refers to the issuance number, e.g., 2 means the second issuance of the WOU message.
WWUS30 KWNS 271559 SAW2 SPC AWW 271559 WW 568 TORNADO AR LA MS 271605Z - 280000Z AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45ESE HEZ/NATCHEZ MS/ - 50N TUP/TUPELO MS/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /18WNW MCB - 60E MEM/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 31369169 34998991 34998762 31368948 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU2.
5-41 Table 5-10. Decoding an Aviation Weather Watch Notification Message Line(s) Content Description 1 WWUS30 KWNS 271559 Communication header with issuance date/time 2 SAW2 NWS product type (SAW) and issuance number (2) 3 SPC AWW 271559 Issuing office Product Type Issuance date/time 4 WW 568
TORNADO
AR LA MS 271605Z - 280000Z Watch number Watch Type States affected Valid date/time period 5 AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE... Watch axis 6 45ESE HEZ/NATCHEZ MS/ - 50N TUP/TUPELO MS/ Anchor points 7 …AVIATION COORDS..55NM E/W /18WNW MCB - 60E MEM/ Aviation coordinates 8-9 HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT…3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
Type, intensity, max tops and mean storm motion using standard contractions.
10 (blank line) 11 LAT...LON 31369169 34998991 4998762 31368948 Latitude and longitude coordinates 12 (blank line) 13-15
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU2.
Notice that this is an approximation of the watch area and for users to refer to the referenced product for the actual area
5.6.2.2 Public Severe Thunderstorm Watch Notification Message.
The SPC issues a Public Severe Thunderstorm Watch Notification Message when forecasting six or more hail events of 1 in (quarter sized) diameter or greater or damaging winds of 50 kts (58 mph) or greater. The forecast event minimum threshold is at least 2 hours over an area of at least 8,000 mi2.
Below these thresholds, the SPC, in collaboration with affected NWS offices, may issue a watch for smaller areas and for shorter periods of time when conditions warrant, and for Convective watches along coastlines, near the Canadian border, and near the Mexican border.
5-42 A Public Severe Thunderstorm Watch Notification Message contains three bulleted blocks of information:
• The geographic area of the watch,
• The valid time of the watch, and
• A description of the primary threats anticipated within the watch.
A plain text watch summary is included beneath the bulleted information followed by a more detailed description of the area and axis of the watch.
The SPC includes the term “adjacent coastal waters” when the watch affects coastal waters adjacent to the Pacific/Atlantic coast, the Gulf of Mexico, or the Great Lakes. Adjacent coastal waters refers to a WFO’s near-shore responsibility (out to 20 NM for oceans), except for Convective watches, which include portions of the Great Lakes.
The SPC issues a watch cancellation message when no counties, parishes, independent cities and/or marine zones remaining are in the watch area prior to the expiration time. The text of the message will specify the number and area of the canceled watch.
5.6.2.2.1 Format of Public Severe Thunderstorm Watch Notification Message.
WWUS20 KWNS ddhhmm (communication header)
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER nnnn
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK time am/pm time zone day mon dd yyyy
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFPORTION(S) OF STATE(S)
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS (IF REQUIRED) * EFFECTIVE (TIME PERIOD) UNTIL hhmm am/pm time zone.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (IF NECESSARY)...
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
HAIL TO X.X INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO XX MPH POSSIBLE
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING POSSIBLE SUMMARY...PLAIN TEXT DESCRIPTION OF WHY THE WATCH IS NEEDED.
NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF WATCH AREA USING A LINE AND ANCHOR POINTS. DISTANCES TO EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE WILL BE IN STATUTE MILES. THIS SECTION INDICATES THE WATCH IS AREA IS AN APPROXIMATION AND “FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOUn).”
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
5-43
CALL TO ACTION STATEMENTS OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...OTHER WATCHES IN EFFECT AND IF THIS WATCH REPLACES A PREVIOUS WATCH.
&& AVIATION...BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO AVIATORS.
HAIL SIZE WILL BE GIVEN IN INCHES AND WIND GUSTS IN KNOTS. MAXIMUM STORM TOPS AND A MEAN STORM VECTOR WILL ALSO BE GIVEN.
$$ ..FORECASTER NAME.. MM/DD/YY To see a dynamic representation of this, please go to the following website:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2010/ww0018.html.
5.6.2.2.2 Example of a Public Severe Thunderstorm Watch Notification Message.
WWUS20 KWNS 161711 (communication header) SEL2 SPC WW 161710
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1210 PM UNTIL 500 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLEDANGEROUS LIGHTNING
POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH BEND INDIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
5-44 OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 646...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WATCH AREA WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED.
VEERING SHEAR PROFILE SUPPORT STORMS EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS ENHANCING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33025.
...NAME
5.6.2.3 Public Tornado Watch Notification Message.
The SPC issues a Public Tornado Watch Notification Message when forecasting two or more tornadoes or any tornado that could produce EF2 or greater damage. The forecast event minimum thresholds are at least 2 hours over an area at least 8,000 mi2. Below these thresholds, the SPC, in collaboration with affected NWS offices, may issue for smaller areas and for shorter periods of time when conditions warrant, and for Convective watches along coastlines, near the Canadian border, and near the Mexican border.
A Public Tornado Watch Notification Message contains the area description and axis, watch expiration time, the term “damaging tornadoes,” a description of the largest hail size and strongest thunderstorm wind gusts expected, the definition of the watch, a call-to-action statement, a list of other valid watches, a brief discussion of meteorological reasoning, and technical information for the aviation community.
The SPC may enhance a Public Tornado Watch Notification Message by using the words “THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION” when there is a likelihood of multiple strong (damage of EF2 or EF3) or violent (damage of EF4 or EF5) tornadoes.
The SPC includes the term “adjacent coastal waters” when the watch affects coastal waters adjacent to the Pacific/Atlantic coast or the Gulf of Mexico.
Adjacent coastal waters refers to a WFO’s near-shore responsibility (out to 20 NM for oceans), which include portions of the Great Lakes.
The SPC issues a watch cancellation message whenever it cancels a watch prior to the expiration time. The text of the message will specify the number and area of the canceled watch.
5.6.2.3.1 Format of a Public Tornado Watch Notification Message.
The format for a Public Tornado Watch Notification Message is the same as the Public Severe Thunderstorm Watch Notification Message.
5-45
5.6.2.3.2 Example of a Public Tornado Watch Notification Message.
A Public Tornado Watch Notification Message contains three bulleted blocks of information:
• The geographic area of the watch,
• The valid time of the watch, and
• A description of the primary threats anticipated within the watch.
A plain text summary is included beneath the bulleted information.
(Note this is a fictitious example) WWUS20 KWNS 050550 (communication header) SEL2 SPC WW 051750
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 1250 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE
NUMEROUS INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY NUMEROUS VERY LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 237. WATCH NUMBER 237 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1250 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 239...WW 240...WW 241...WW 242...
5-46 DISCUSSION...SRN MO SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD...WHERE
LONG/HOOKED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES. FARTHER S...MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST IN VERY STRONGLY DEEP SHEARED/LCL ENVIRONMENT IN AR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.
.
..NAME To see a dynamic representation of this, please go to the following website:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2017/ww0020.html.
5.6.3 Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Convective Forecast (TCF).
The TCF is a high-confidence graphical representation of forecasted convection meeting specific criteria of coverage, intensity, and echo top height. The TCF graphics are produced every 2 hours and are valid at 4, 6, and 8 hours after issuance time. Areas of convection in the TCF include any area of Convective cells containing (at a minimum):
1. Composite radar reflectivity of at least 40 decibels (dBZ);
2. Echo tops at or above FL250;
3. Coverage (1 and 2) of at least 25 percent of the polygon area; and
4. Forecaster confidence of at least 50 percent (high) that criteria (1, 2, and 3) will be met.
Lines of convection in the TCF include any lines of Convective cells having (at a minimum):
1. Composite radar reflectivity of at least 40 dBZ having a length of at least 100 NM;
2. Linear coverage of 40 percent or greater;
3. Echo tops at or above FL250; and
4. Forecaster confidence of at least 50 percent (high) that criteria (1, 2, and 3) will be met.
All four of the threshold criteria listed above for both areas and lines of convection are required for inclusion in the TCF. This is defined as the minimum TCF criteria.
The TCF domain is the FIR covering the CONUS and adjacent coastal waters. It also includes the Canadian airspace south of a line from Thunder Bay, Ontario to Quebec City, Quebec.
From March 1st through October 31st, the TCF is collaboratively produced by meteorologists at the AWC in Kansas City, MO, and embedded at the FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) in Warrenton, VA; at the CWSU
5-47 embedded at the FAA’s ARTCC; at various airlines; and by other authorized participants.
Automated routines will continue to make the TCF available from November 1st through February 28th.
The TCF is issued 24 hours a day, 7 days a week at 30 minutes prior to the indicated issuance time. The issuance time supports the FAA’s Strategic Planning (SP) Webinar, which occurs 15 minutes following odd hours Eastern Time (ET). The Canadian portion of the forecast is available from April 1st through September 30th. However, Nav Canada may request the issuance of each forecast as early as March 1st and as late as October 31st.
All available Canadian forecasts are incorporated into the TCF. During times the forecasts are not available for Canadian airspace, the TCF graphics will be annotated with “No Canadian TCF.”
The TCF is intended to be used as an SP tool for air traffic flow management. It aids in the reduction of air traffic delays, reroutes, and cancellations due to significant convection. It is not intended to be used for tactical air traffic flow decisions, in the airport terminal environment, or for pilot weather briefing purposes. The graphical representation is subject to annual revision.
Figure 5-25. TFM Convective Forecast (TCF)—Example