5-48 Figure 5-26. TFM Convective Forecast (TCF)—Example
5.6.3.1 Issuance.
The TCF is issued by the AWC.
The TCF is issued every 2 hours. The TCF product issuance time is approximately the bottom of the hour preceding the FAA ATCSCC’s SP telecom (i.e., the 1600 UTC issuance would be available at ~1530 UTC for the 1615 UTC SP telecom). The product can be found on https://www.aviationweather.gov.
5.6.3.2 Content.
Data graphically displayed on the TCF consist of coverage of convection within a defined polygon, maximum tops, and confidence of Convective occurrence meeting the TCF minimum criteria.
Additiona l information on the TCF product is available on the TCF website form under the INFO tab, on https://www.aviationweather.gov.
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5.6.3.3 Coverage.
The Convective coverage within the forecast polygon is represented by the amount of fill within the polygon (see Figure 5-27, TCF Product Legend). The polygon is then assigned as a sparse or medium coverage.
• Medium coverage, defined by medium fill, indicates 40 to 100 percent of the polygon is forecast to contain convection.
• Sparse coverage, represented by sparse fill, means 25 to 39 percent of the polygon is forecast to contain convection.
Figure 5-27. TCF Product Legend
5.6.3.3.1 Confidence.
The TCF is a high confidence (50 to 100 percent) graphical representation of forecasted convection that denotes the forecasters’ confidence that the represented convection will meet the minimum criteria. Confidence is not to be associated with probability of occurrence.
5.6.3.3.2 TOPS.
The word “TOPS” is used to depict the forecast maximum echo tops, in thousands of feet MSL, specified by four selected layers listed in Figure 5-27.
The heights of the forecast echo tops must cover at least 25 percent of the polygon. The exact location of the highest echo top within the polygon cannot be determined.
5.6.3.4 Use.
The TCF is an SP tool for air traffic flow management in the 2- to 8-hour forecast period.
The TCF does not include a forecast for all convection. If the convection does not meet the threshold criteria, it is not included in the TCF. The TCF is not intended to be used as a tactical short-term decision product.
The product is not intended to be used as a pilot weather briefing product;
however, TCF is available to pilots and aircraft dispatchers as an additional product for SP.
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5.6.4 Extended Convective Forecast Product (ECFP).
The ECFP planning tool (see Figure 5-28, ECFP Example) is a graphical representation of the forecast probability of thunderstorms and is also intended to support the long-range planning for Convective constraints in the National Airspace System (NAS). The product identifies graphically where thunderstorms are expected through the next 72 hours over the CONUS. Although the ECFP uses TCF-style graphics to facilitate ease of interpretation, the ECFP does not forecast TCF criteria.
The development of the ECFP planning tool was a response to FAA and industry needs in planning for weather hazards, specifically convection, 1 to 3 days in advance. To meet these planning needs, the ECFP provides traffic planners and collaborators a quick look at where the probability of convection is greatest. By utilizing TCF-style graphics, users familiar with TCF can easily determine where traffic constraints are most likely to occur over the next 3 days.
5.6.4.1 Issuance.
The ECFP is an automated forecast product issued by the AWC. It is issued four times a day at approximately 0100, 0700, 1300, and 1900 UTC.
Figure 5-28. ECFP Example
5.6.4.2 C ontent.
This automated graphical forecast is created from the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Calibrated Thunderstorm guidance. Probability of thunderstorm contours are depicted at 40, 60, and 80 percent probabilities, using TCF-like shading. Hashed areas represent 40 to 59 percent probability,
5-51 solid lined areas represent 60 to 79 percent probability, and solid, blue-filled areas represent greater than 80 percent probability.
5.6.4.3 Use.
The ECFP is intended for FAA traffic managers at ARTCC, FAA ATCSCC, airline and aviation industry dispatch and flight planners, as well as commercial weather information providers supporting airlines and the FAA.
5.6.5 National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF).
The NCWF is a near real-time, high-resolution display of current and 1-hour extrapolated forecasts of selected hazardous Convective conditions for the CONUS. The NCWF may be used in conjunction with the report and forecast information contained within Convective SIGMETs. The NCWF is available for use by General Aviation (GA), aircraft dispatchers, and Traffic Management Units (TMU).
5.6.5.1 Issuance.
The NCWF is issued by the AWC and is updated every 5 minutes. The product is available at the Convection Web page on https://www.aviationweather.gov.
5.6.5.2 Content.
The NCWF displays current Convective hazard fields (detection), 1-hour extrapolated forecast polygons (see Figure 5-29, NCWF Example), forecast speed and directions, and echo tops. Past performance polygons can also be select ed for display.
5-52 Figure 5-29. NCWF Example
5.6.5.2.1 NCWF Hazard Scale.
The Convective hazard scale uses six hazard levels (see Figure 5-30, NCWF Hazard Scale) to characterize hazardous convection conditions.
The six hazard levels are determined by two factors:
• Intensities and maximum tops of WSR-88D reflectivity data; and
• Frequencies of cloud-to-ground lightning.
Higher hazard levels are associated with higher radar reflectivity intensities and higher frequencies of lightning strikes.
The six hazard levels are reduced to four-color codes for display on the NCWF.
5-53 Figure 5-30. NCWF Hazard Scale
5.6.5.2.2 One-Hour Extrapolated Forecast Polygons.
One-hour extrapolated forecast polygons are high-resolution polygons outlining areas expected to be filled by selected Convective hazard fields in 1 hour. Extrapolated forecasts depict new locations for the Convective hazard fields based on their past movements. Extrapolation forecasts do not forecast the development of new Convective hazard conditions or the dissipation of existing conditions. Forecasts are provided only for Convective hazard scale Levels 3 or higher. The forecast polygons do not depict specific forecast hazard levels. In Figure 5-29, the light blue polygon denotes the location of the 1-hour forecast Convective hazard field.
5.6.5.2.3 Forecast Speed and Direction.
Forecast speed and direction are assigned to current Convective hazard fields having a 1-hour extrapolated forecast. A line (or arrow on the AWC JavaScript product) is used to depict the direction of movement. The speed in knots is depicted by the first group of two numbers located near the current Convective hazard field. The second group of three numbers identifies echo tops.
Forecast speed and direction is only updated every 10 minutes. The larger update time interval (compared to five-minute updates for the NCWF) smooths erratic forecast velocities. In Figure 5-29, the forecast direction (depicted by an arrow) is pointing to the southeast, and the speed is 25 kts.
5.6.5.2.4 Echo Tops.
Echo tops are assigned to current Convective hazard fields having a 1-hour extrapolated forecast. Echo tops are depicted by a group of three numbers located near the current Convective hazard field and are plotted in hundreds of feet MSL. In Figure 5-31, NCWF One-Hour E xtrapolated Forecast Polygon, Forecast Movement Velocity and Echo Tops—Examp le, the echo tops are 45,000 ft MSL.
5-54 Figure 5-31. NCWF One-Hour Extrapolated Forecast Polygon, Forecast Movement Velocity and Echo Tops—Example
5.6.5.2.5 Past Performance Polygons.
Past performance polygons are magenta polygons displaying the past hour’s extrapolated forecast polygons with the current Convective hazard fields. A perfect forecast would have the polygons filled with Convective hazard scale Levels 3 or higher data. Levels 1 and 2 would be outside the polygons. The display of past performance polygons allows the user to review the accuracy of the past hour’s forecast.
Figure 5-32, NCWF Past Performance Polygons—Example, depicts current Convective hazard fields and past performance polygons (magenta) valid at 1500Z. The past performance polygons are the 1-hour extrapolated forecasts made at 1400Z. Although the polygons do not perfectly match the current Level 3 and higher hazard fields, the forecasts are still fairly accurate.
Newly developed Convective hazard Levels 3 and higher do not have past performance polygons. Extrapolated forecasts do not forecast developing hazardous Convective.
5-55 Figure 5-32. NCWF Past Performance Polygons—Example
5.6.5.3 St rengths and Limitations.
5.6.5.3.1 Strengths.
Strengths of the NCWF include:
• Convective hazard fields that agree very well with radar and lightning data;
• Updates every five minutes;
• High-resolution forecasts of Convective hazards; and
• Well-forecasted long-lived Convective precipitation.
5.6.5.3.2 Limitations.
Limitations of the NCWF include:
• Initiation, growth, and decay of Convective precipitation are not forecast;
• Short-lived or embedded convection may not be accurately displayed or forecast;
• Low-topped convection that contains little or no lightning may not be depicted;
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• Erroneous motion vectors are occasionally assigned to storms; and
• Convective hazard field scales are not identified within the forecast polygons.
5.6.5.4 Uses of the NCWF.
The purpose of the NCWF is to produce a Convective hazard field diagnostic and forecast product based on radar data, echo top mosaics, and lightning data. The target audience includes the FAA and other government agencies, pilots, aircraft dispatchers, aviation meteorologists, and other interested aviation users in the general public.
5.7 Products for Tropical Cyclones.
The NWS issues SIGMETs, Convective SIGMETs, and CWAs to inform the aviation community about the potential or existence of tropical cyclones. These above-listed products are the primary source of information. The NWS also issues other products pertaining to tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones have a sustained wind speed of 34 kts or greater and are called tropical storm, hurricane, typhoon, and cyclone, depending on their intensity or region of the world.
5.7.1 Tropical Cyclone Advisory (TCA).
The TCA is intended to provide tropical cyclone forecast guidance, through 24 hours, for international aviation safety and routing purposes. TCAs are issued by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) TCACs for all ongoing tropical cyclone activity in their respective AORs. There are seven TCACs worldwide, with two in the United States, the NWS’ National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, and the NWS’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii.
The NHC is responsible for all ongoing tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific, north of the equator, while the CPHC is responsible for the central Pacific, north of the equator. TCAs are available on their respective websites.
5.7.1.1 Issuance.
The NHC and CPHC issue TCAs at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC and are valid from the time of issuance until the next scheduled issuance or update.
The forecast position information in the TCA is interpolated from the official forecast data, which is valid at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.
5.7.1.2 Content.
TCAs list the current tropical cyclone position, motion, and intensity, and 6-, 12-, 18-, and 24-hour forecast positions and intensities. It is an alphanumeric text product produced by hurricane forecasters and consists of information extracted from the official forecasts.
This forecast is produced from subjective evaluation of current meteorological and oceanographic data as well as output from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, and is coordinated with affected NWS offices, the NWS National Centers, and the Department of Defense (DOD).
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5.7.1.3 Format.
The format of the Aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory is as follows:
FKaa2i cccc ddhhmm (ICAO communication header) (TROPICAL CYCLONE TYPE) (NAME)ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER ## (ISSUING OFFICE CITY STATE) BBCCYYYY time UTC day of week mon dd yyyy TEXT $$
5.7.1.4 Aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory (TCA) Example.
FKNT25 KNHC 210900 TCANT5 TROPICAL STORM ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007 0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007
TC ADVISORY DTG: 20071021/0900Z TCAC: KNHC TC: ERNESTO NR: 027 PSN: N3000 W08012 MOV: N 13KT C: 0998HPA MAX WIND: 045KT FCST PSN + 06 HR: 211200 N3106 W07951 FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 045KT FCST PSN + 12 HR: 211800 N3206 W07930 FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 050KT FCST PSN + 18 HR: 220000 N3321 W07903 FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 045KT
5-58 FCST PSN + 24 HR: 220600 N3436 W07836 FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 040KT
RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
NXT MSG: 20071021/1500Z $$
5.7.1.5 Additional Tropical Cyclone Information Products.
The NHC, CPHC, and select WFOs issue many public tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon information products. Many are in Web-based graphic format. For more information on these public forecasts, see the websites of NHC, CPHC, WFO Guam, and WFOs along the Gulf Coast and the East Coast.
5.8 Volcanic Ash Forecasts.
In addition to SIGMETs, the NWS issues forecasts to notify the aviation community of volcanic ash clouds.
5.8.1 Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC).
A VAAC is a meteorological office designated by an ICAO regional air navigation agreement to provide advisory volcanic ash information to MWOs, World Area Forecast Centers (WAFC), area control centers, flight information centers, and international operational meteorological (OPMET) data banks regarding the lateral and vertical extent and forecast movement of volcanic ash in the atmosphere following a volcanic eruption.
There are nine VAACs worldwide (see Figure 5-33, Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs)). The duties of a VAAC include:
• Monitoring relevant geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite data to detect the existence and extent of volcanic ash in the atmosphere in the area concerned;
• Activating the volcanic ash numerical trajectory/dispersion model in order to forecast the movement of any ash cloud that has been detected or reported; and
• Issuing advisory information regarding the extent and forecast movement of the volcanic ash cloud.
5-59 Figure 5-33. Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs)
AORs for VAACs include Anchorage, Montreal, Washington. Wellington (New Zealand), Buenos Aires (Argentina), London, Toulouse (France), Tokyo, and Darwin.
The United States has two VAACs with responsibilities defined in ICAO Annex 3, Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation. The Washington VAAC is jointly managed by the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations (NCO). The Anchorage VAAC is managed by the NWS’s AAWU. The AORs for each VAAC are:
• Washington VAAC.
o FIRs in CONUS and adjacent coastal waters.
o The Oakland Oceanic FIR over the Pacific Ocean.
o The New York FIR over the western Atlantic Ocean.
o FIRs over and adjacent to the Caribbean and Central and South America north of 10 degrees south latitude.
• Anchorage VAAC.
o The Anchorage FIR.
o Russian FIRs north of 60 degrees north latitude and east of 150 degrees east longitude.
5.8.2 Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA).
The VAA is advisory information on volcanic ash cloud issued in abbreviated plain language, using approved ICAO abbreviations and numerical values of self-explanatory nature.