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Decision making/judgment

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NTSB finding · Personnel issues › Action/decision › Info processing/decision

All 3,100 cases2,958 in the probable cause
Cases
3,100
In the probable cause
2,958 (95%)
Fatal cases
966
NTSB code
02041520

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026

Where

Open the map
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '02041520') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Defining events
Aircraft models

Aircraft matched to the registry by N-number and date.

Other findings
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '02041520'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '02041520') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 3,100

NTSB CEN26LA304Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportPiper PA-28-161 · Hudson Oaks, TXThe pilot’s loss of directional control during the rejected takeoff, which resulted in a runway excursion. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s decision to abort the takeoff after the airplane had accelerated above its normal rotation speed. Also…Sep 1, 2026 · N47899 · Substantial damageNTSB ERA26LA284Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportPiper PA28 · Palmetto, FLThe flight instructor’s failure to maintain clearance from obstacles during low altitude maneuvering, which resulted in a collision with a fence.Jul 24, 2026 · N44704 · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA268Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportPiper PA-18 · Colusa, CAThe pilot's inadequate fuel planning and in-flight decision making, which resulted in a total loss of engine power due to fuel exhaustion.Jul 18, 2026 · N7590K · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA266Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportMaule M-4-180V · Creede, COThe pilot’s exceedance of the airplane’s performance capabilities in mountainous terrain, which resulted in a forced landing.Jul 18, 2026 · N489LA · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA246Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportSchweizer SGS 2-33A · Lake Elsinore, CAThe student pilot’s failure to maintain a proper glidepath, which resulted in a long landing and collision with a person on the ground.Jul 5, 2026 · N5790S · Substantial damageNTSB ERA26LA263Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportRyan Navion A · Newport, NHThe pilot’s failure to attain an appropriate touchdown point, which resulted in a runway overrun.Jul 5, 2026 · N5205K · Substantial damageNTSB ERA26LA264Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportCessna 172 · Greensboro, NCThe flight instructor’s improper decision to leave the airplane with the engine running, which resulted in the airplane rolling forward and impacting a hangar.Jun 27, 2026 · N7764G · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA234Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportPiper PA-12 · Dixie, IDThe pilot's delayed decision to initiate a go-around and subsequent failure to maintain clearance from rising terrain.Jun 23, 2026 · N3013M · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA229Accident · Minor injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportRyan Navion · Bismarck, MOThe pilot’s failure to remove the maintenance spacer before takeoff, which resulted in restricted flight control movement and a loss of control.Jun 23, 2026 · N4583K · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA230Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportStephen Aberle Chipper CH-2A · Alva, OKThe pilot's decision to taxi the tailwheel-equipped airplane over uneven terrain while operating with limited forward visibility, which resulted in the left main landing gear entering a hole.Jun 21, 2026 · N618SA · Substantial damage
See all 3,100 cases
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '02041520'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.