Not determined

NTSB finding category

Cases
2,247
In the probable cause
2,176 (97%)
Fatal cases
574
NTSB code
05

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026
Cases with Not determined per year: 2,247 cases
2008150
2009199
2010195
2011156
2012171
2013128
2014150
2015163
2016137
2017135
2018143
2019118
202086
202198
202276
202368
202437
202528
20269
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '05') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Subcategories · 1

Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT left(f.\"findingCode\", 4) AS code, max(f.\"tier2Name\") AS name,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '05') AND f.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY cases DESC, code"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '05'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '05') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 2,247

NTSB GAA26WA326Accident · No injuriesClass 5 · ForeignLaviasa PA25 · Cajati, BrazilSep 21, 2026 · PR-SOH · Substantial damageNTSB GAA26WA309Incident · No injuriesClass 5 · ForeignBell 412 · Ciudad del Carmen, MexicoSep 8, 2026 · XA-EHJ · No damageNTSB GAA26WA286Incident · No injuriesClass 5 · ForeignGuimbal Cabri · Oxford, United KingdomAug 19, 2026 · G-TOOO · Minor damageNTSB GAA26WA275Occurrence · No injuriesClass 5 · ForeignCessna U206 · Iquique, ChileAug 4, 2026 · CC-PHJ · Minor damageNTSB GAA26WA261Incident · 1 fatalClass 5 · ForeignCessna 152 · Mengeringhausen, GermanyJul 14, 2026 · D-EJCP · DestroyedNTSB GAA26WA201Incident · No injuriesClass 5 · ForeignPiper PA28 · Aguadulce District, PanamaMay 27, 2026 · HP-1861FX · Substantial damageNTSB GAA26WA247Accident · No injuriesClass 5 · ForeignPiper PA28 · Roszczep, PolandMay 21, 2026 · SE-EOT · Substantial damageNTSB GAA26WA183Accident · 1 fatalClass 5 · ForeignCessna 182 · Santa Cruz Barillas, GuatemalaMay 3, 2026 · TG-JEB · Substantial damageNTSB ANC26LA026Accident · Minor injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportCessna U206F · Juneau, AKA total loss of engine power for reasons that could not be determined because the airplane was not recovered from the ocean.Apr 16, 2026 · N93021 · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA062Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportBell 407 · Las Vegas, NVTail rotor blade impact from an unidentified object at an undetermined time.Dec 15, 2025 · N404LL · Substantial damage
See all 2,247 cases
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '05'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.