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NTSB accident investigation · Piper PA28R · Shelter Cove, CA · October 25, 2019

Accident · FatalClass 3 · Missing aircraftFinal report
Date
October 24, 2019, 21:23 local (Oct 25, 2019, 04:23 UTC)
Place
Shelter Cove, CA
Injuries
2 fatal
Damage
Destroyed
Phase of flight
Unknown
Aircraft
N4958JPiper PA28R
Defining event
Unknown: Unknown or undetermined
Weather
Visual (VMC) · Night/dark
Status
Completed
Report
Approved by Office Director
Investigation class
Class 3
NTSB office
Western Pacific Region
FAA report
20191024020379A
Case key
100609

From the NTSB’s public API. By law, NTSB reports can’t be used as evidence in lawsuits over the accident.

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Probable cause

Undetermined due to lack of available evidence.

Findings · 3

NTSB’s coded findings. Those marked are part of the probable cause; the rest are factors or other findings. Under each, the cases with the same finding.

Light condition: darkEnvironmental issues › Conditions/weather/phenomena · Contributed to outcomePiper PA-28R-180: 4 casesAll aircraft: 448 casesProbable cause
Use of equip/info: aircraft controlPersonnel issues › Task performance · PilotPiper PA-28R-180: 17 casesAll aircraft: 9,295 casesProbable cause
Not determinedNot determined › Not determined · Unknown/Not determinedPiper PA-28R-180: 5 casesAll aircraft: 2,247 casesProbable cause

Sequence of events

The events NTSB coded, in order, by phase of flight. The defining event is the one that best describes the accident. Under each, the cases with the same event anywhere in their sequence.

Analysis

A witness reported that the pilot and passenger departed in dark night conditions with no visible horizon. After takeoff, the airplane made a left turn. Flight track data first identified the airplane about 2.8 nautical miles southeast of the departure airport and over the ocean. The airplane was at an indicated altitude of about 3,325 ft mean sea level (msl) and was transmitting a beacon code of 1200. The airplane maneuvered and made a right 360o turn followed by a left 360o turn, then reversed course, conducted a figure-eight turn, and headed south-southeast bound. It gradually climbed to about 6,000 ft msl before entering a left descending turn and rapidly losing altitude. The track data indicated that the airplane descended from about 5,800 ft to 2,850 ft msl in the last 24 seconds of recorded track data. A search for the airplane found no debris, and the airplane remains missing. The flight track data are consistent with a loss of airplane control.

Factual narrative

On October 24, 2019, about 2123 Pacific daylight time, Piper PA-28R-180, N4958J, was involved in an accident near Shelter Cove, California. Neither the private pilot and passenger nor the airplane have been located. The airplane was operated as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 personal cross-country flight. A witness at the Shelter Cove Airport (0Q5), Shelter Cove, California, reported that she observed the airplane depart about 2100 and noted that it was completely dark with no visible horizon. After the airplane lifted off the runway it made a left turn. No record of a preflight weather briefing, nor air traffic servicers were located, and no flight plan was filed. The airplane did not arrive at its destination, Gnoss Field Airport (DVO), Novato, California, and was reported overdue by family. On November 3, 2019, the search for the missing airplane was suspended; there was no wreckage debris located during the search. The Federal Aviation Administration found no evidence of automated dependent-surveillance-broadcast information transmitted from the airplane. Air traffic control flight track data revealed that the accident airplane first appeared in track data about 2.8 nautical miles southeast of Shelter Cove about 2104 and over the ocean. The airplane was at an indicated altitude of about 3,325 ft mean sea level (msl) and was transmitting a beacon code of 1200. The airplane maneuvered and made a right 360o turn followed by a left 360o turn. It then reversed course, conducted a figure-eight turn, and headed south-southeast bound, gradually climbing to about 6,000 ft msl before entering a left descending turn and rapidly losing altitude. The track data indicated that the airplane descended from about 5,800 ft to 2,850 ft msl in the last 24 seconds of recorded track data. The track data was lost about 2123.

Aircraft

Registration
N4958J
Reported as
Piper PA28R (180)
Category
Airplane
Serial number
28R-30706
Built
1968
Damage
Destroyed
Fire
Unknown
Flight
Personal · Part 91
Airworthiness certificate
Standard, Normal
Departed
0Q5 · Shelter Cove, CA
Destination
DVO · Novato, CA
Airport
0Q5 · Shelter Cove

Matched to the registry by N-number and the event date; the registry’s history has gaps, so older matches can be wrong. Compare the reported make and model.

Flight crew

As NTSB recorded them. NTSB leaves out names.

Role
Pilot
Age
44
Injuries
Fatal
Certificate
Private
Airplane ratings
Single-engine land
Medical
Class 2, With waivers/limitations
Seat
Left

Weather

Conditions
Visual (VMC) · Night/dark
Wind
Variable at 3 knots
Visibility
10 statute miles
Lowest ceiling
None
Temperature
88 °F, dew point 16 °F
Altimeter
30.04 inHg
Observed at
KUKI, 53 nm away

Docket · 3

The files NTSB released with the investigation on March 24, 2022, on NTSB’s docket system: statements, records, photos and specialists’ reports. 1.2 MB in all.

FAA reports on this event · 1

The FAA’s own accident and incident reports, matched to the aircraft by N-number and date.