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NTSB finding · Environmental issues › Conditions/weather/phenomena › Convective weather

All 100 cases81 in the probable cause
Cases
100
In the probable cause
81 (81%)
Fatal cases
59
NTSB code
03033010

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026

Where

Open the map
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '03033010') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Defining events
Aircraft models

Aircraft matched to the registry by N-number and date.

Other findings
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '03033010'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '03033010') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 100

NTSB CEN26LA315Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportProgressive Aerodyne Searey · DeQuincy, LAThe pilot’s failure to maintain directional control during takeoff after encountering a wind gust. Contributing to the accident was nearby convective activity.Sep 10, 2026 · N80515 · Substantial damageNTSB ERA26LA218Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportGulfstream Aerospace GVII-G600 · Birmingham, ALThe flight crew’s decision to continue the landing approach into adverse weather conditions, which resulted in a loss visual reference and loss airplane control during landing.May 27, 2026 · N600WE · Substantial damageNTSB DCA25LA307Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportEmbraer S A ERJ 170-200 LL · Peaster, TXThe airplane’s encounter with convective turbulence that resulted in serious injuries to a passenger who was out of their seat when the seatbelt sign was illuminated.Aug 29, 2025 · N110SY · No damageNTSB CEN25LA200Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportAir Tractor AT-502 · Gibson, ARThe pilot’s loss of control during takeoff due to an encounter with a sudden wind shift.Jun 5, 2025 · N45113 · Substantial damageNTSB ERA25FA201Accident · 1 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportPiper PA32RT · Yulee, FLThe pilot’s exceedance of the airplane’s critical angle of attack during takeoff, which resulted in a stall/spin at an altitude too low for recovery. Contributing to the accident was the opening of the nose baggage door and subsequent distraction of the pilot…May 10, 2025 · N30689 · DestroyedNTSB ERA24LA344Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportBeech A36 · Cullman, ALThe pilot’s decision to depart in an area of developing convective weather, which resulted in an unanticipated wind shift during the initial climb after takeoff, a loss of climb performance, and the subsequent forced landing.Aug 2, 2024 · N718FG · Substantial damageNTSB ERA24FA283Accident · 5 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportPiper PA46 · Trout Creek, NYThe pilot’s loss of airplane control in flight due to spatial disorientation during a climb to cruise altitude in instrument meteorological conditions and turbulence, which resulted in the in-flight breakup of the airplane. Contributing to the accident was…Jun 30, 2024 · N85PG · DestroyedNTSB WPR24FA105Accident · 2 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportPiper PA-32-260 · Madras, ORThe pilot’s continued visual flight rules flight into instrument meteorological conditions, which resulted in an encounter with turbulence and structural icing conditions, loss of control, and subsequent impact with terrain.Mar 10, 2024 · N3264W · DestroyedNTSB ERA23FA380Accident · 2 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportPiper PA28 · Whitesville, KYThe flight instructor’s improper decision to continue flight into a known area of thunderstorms, which resulted in an in-flight breakup.Sep 28, 2023 · N3079M · DestroyedNTSB ERA23FA330Accident · 1 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportCessna P210 · Junction City, GAThe pilot’s continued flight into a known area of adverse weather, which resulted in the penetration of a severe thunderstorm, the pilot’s loss of airplane control, and the airplane’s subsequent in-flight breakup.Aug 10, 2023 · N210JT · Destroyed
See all 100 cases
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '03033010'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.