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Downdraft

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NTSB finding · Environmental issues › Conditions/weather/phenomena › Wind

All 178 cases99 in the probable cause
Cases
178
In the probable cause
99 (56%)
Fatal cases
21
NTSB code
03034035

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026

Where

Open the map
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '03034035') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Defining events
Aircraft models

Aircraft matched to the registry by N-number and date.

Other findings
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '03034035'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '03034035') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 178

NTSB CEN26LA196Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportGuenther Glen A Searey LSX · Briarcliff, TXThe pilot's failure to maintain sufficient altitude and aircraft control during the base to final turn, which resulted in the airplane impacting the water. Contributing to the accident was reported downdraft wind conditions.May 24, 2026 · N379GG · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA196Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportDiamond DA40 · Wells, NVThe pilot’s inability to maintain climb performance and clearance from mountainous terrain due to a downdraft.May 17, 2026 · N787PV · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA180Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportCessna 172 · Marysvale, UTThe pilot's failure to maintain clearance from trees while maneuvering in mountainous terrain prior to encountering a downdraft.May 10, 2026 · N6643A · DestroyedNTSB ERA26LA199Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportAlexander Schleicher ASW 27-18 · Greenwood, SCThe glider pilot’s encounter with a strong sink/loss of lift, which resulted in a forced landing to unsuitable terrain.Apr 20, 2026 · N27CU · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA123Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportBrunner Donald G Kitfox · Rock Crossing, AZAn encounter with a downdraft while maneuvering at a low altitude, which resulted in an impact with terrain.Mar 10, 2026 · N104DG · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA118Accident · Minor injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportLindstrand 260A · Casa Grande, AZThe hot air balloon’s encounter with downdraft wind conditions in mountainous terrain and subsequent impact with terrain.Mar 2, 2026 · N261RR · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA052Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportCameron Balloons US A-225 · Albuquerque, NMThe balloon landing in increased wind, and the pilot’s inability to maintain the proper descent rate, which resulted in a hard landing.Nov 24, 2025 · N980VA · No damageNTSB WPR26LA048Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportAviat A1 · Evanston, WYThe airplane’s encounter with downdrafts in mountainous terrain, which resulted in a collision with terrain. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s decision to continue the flight through mountainous terrain in marginal weather conditions.Oct 4, 2025 · N96WJ · Substantial damageNTSB ANC25LA100Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportChampion 7GCBC · Sutton, AKThe airplane’s encounter with a downdraft while maneuvering at low altitude, which resulted in a forced landing and collision with terrain.Aug 31, 2025 · N5267X · Substantial damageNTSB CEN25LA251Accident · Minor injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportScott Vincin Just Acft Highlander · Mancos, COThe airplane’s reduced climb performance during takeoff in mountainous terrain, which resulted in the airplane’s inability to climb and impact with terrain.Jul 13, 2025 · N970SV · Substantial damage
See all 178 cases
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '03034035'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.