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Self confidence

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NTSB finding · Personnel issues › Psychological › Personality/attitude

All 16 cases7 in the probable cause
Cases
16
In the probable cause
7 (44%)
Fatal cases
12
NTSB code
02021010

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026

Where

Open the map
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '02021010') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Defining events
Aircraft models

Aircraft matched to the registry by N-number and date.

Other findings
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '02021010'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '02021010') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 16

NTSB ANC25LA083Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportAviat A-1B · Chisana, AKThe pilot’s failure to maintain clearance from terrain while maneuvering at low altitude.Aug 2, 2025 · N900HY · Substantial damageNTSB WPR24FA040Accident · 3 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportPiper PA-28-180 · Mertzon, TXThe non-instrument-rated pilot’s continued visual flight into night instrument meteorological conditions, which resulted in spatial disorientation and subsequent loss of control. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s overconfidence.Nov 26, 2023 · N7763W · DestroyedNTSB ERA21LA296Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportCessna 560XL · Reading, PAThe captain’s improper decision to continue an unstabilized approach despite several go-around calls by the pilot monitoring, which resulted in a runway excursion and substantial damage to the pressure vessel.Jul 21, 2021 · N46CF · Substantial damageNTSB WPR21FA231Accident · 2 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportPiper PA-28-140 · Rush Valley, UTThe pilot’s misidentification of a mountain pass at night, which resulted in controlled flight into terrain. Contributing to the accident were the pilot’s overconfidence based on her previous aviation experience and fatigue due to both the time of the flight…Jun 18, 2021 · N6323R · Substantial damageNTSB WPR19MA177Accident · 11 fatalClass 2 · MajorFinal reportBeech 65-A90 · Mokuleia, HIThe pilot’s aggressive takeoff maneuver, which resulted in an accelerated stall and subsequent loss of control at an altitude that was too low for recovery. Contributing to the accident were (1) the operation of the airplane near its aft center of gravity…Jun 22, 2019 · N256TA · DestroyedNTSB CEN18FA386Accident · 1 fatalField investigationFinal reportCessna U206 · Rainy Pass, AKThe pilot's improper decision to continue the flight in deteriorating weather conditions, which resulted in an inadvertent entry into a box canyon and subsequent controlled flight into mountainous terrain.Sep 24, 2018 · N1738R · DestroyedNTSB ANC18FA007Accident · 1 fatalField investigationFinal reportIcon A5 · Clearwater, FLThe pilot's improper decision to perform aggressive, low-altitude maneuvers due to his impairment from the use of multiple psychoactive substances, which resulted in a loss of control.Nov 7, 2017 · N922BA · Substantial damageNTSB ERA17FA073Accident · 3 fatalField investigationFinal reportCessna 182 · Gatlinburg, TNThe non-instrument-rated pilot's intentional visual flight rules flight into instrument meteorological conditions, which resulted in controlled flight into terrain. Contributing to the accident was the pilot's established anti-authority attitude.Dec 26, 2016 · N1839X · DestroyedNTSB WPR17FA008Accident · 1 fatalField investigationFinal reportCessna 182D · South Lake Tahoe, CAThe noninstrument-rated pilot's decision to depart on and continue a flight over mountainous terrain into forecast instrument metrological conditions, icing, and hazardous wind conditions that exceeded the airplanes performance capabilities and resulted in an…Oct 15, 2016 · N8718X · DestroyedNTSB CEN14LA454Accident · 1 fatalLimited investigationFinal reportRans S17 · Lowell, MIThe pilot’s overconfidence, which led to his improper decision to continue flight in the recently purchased, unregistered airplane without acquiring training and to his continued erratic handling of the airplane and subsequent loss of airplane control.Aug 24, 2014 · UNREG · Substantial damage
See all 16 cases
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '02021010'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.