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Confidence/reliance on equip

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NTSB finding · Personnel issues › Psychological › Personality/attitude

All 11 cases7 in the probable cause
Cases
11
In the probable cause
7 (64%)
Fatal cases
6
NTSB code
02021015

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026

Where

Open the map
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '02021015') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Defining events
Aircraft models

Aircraft matched to the registry by N-number and date.

Other findings
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '02021015'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '02021015') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 11

NTSB ANC25LA064Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportRobinson Helicopter R44 II · Palmer, AKThe pilot’s diverted attention during takeoff in flat light conditions, which resulted in a loss of visual reference with terrain.Jun 30, 2025 · N531AT · Substantial damageNTSB WPR24FA124Accident · 1 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportGulfstream 695A · San Bernardino, CAThe pilot’s continued use of the airplane’s autopilot after flight into moderate to severe icing conditions, which resulted in an exceedance of the airplane’s critical angle of attack and an aerodynamic stall.Apr 14, 2024 · N965BC · DestroyedNTSB GAA16CA116Accident · No injuriesData collectionFinal reportCessna 152 · Durant, OKThe pilot's failure to maintain pitch control during the landing, resulting in a porpoise.Jan 29, 2016 · N5101P · Substantial damageNTSB ERA16FA006Accident · 2 fatalField investigationFinal reportColumbia Aircraft Mfg LC41 550FG · Erwin, TNThe pilot's decision to fly into a known area of adverse weather, which resulted in the airplane entering a severe thunderstorm and a subsequent loss of control.Oct 9, 2015 · N1058S · DestroyedNTSB ERA14LA316Accident · Serious injuriesLimited investigationFinal reportCzech Sport Piper Sport · Peachtree City, GAThe pilot's incomplete assessment of the risk presented by operating an airplane with an unresolved history of engine power losses; a partial loss of engine power during takeoff due to operation of the engine with an excessively rich fuel/air mixture; and the…Jun 29, 2014 · N957MD · Substantial damageNTSB WPR14LA005Accident · 4 fatalLimited investigationFinal reportCessna 340A · Paulden, AZThe pilot’s failure to maintain sufficient altitude to clear a radio tower while maneuvering at low altitude and his decision to make a high-speed, low pass over the gun club.Oct 4, 2013 · N312GC · Substantial damageNTSB ERA12FA433Accident · 3 fatalField investigationFinal reportPiper PA-32R-300 · New Site, MSThe pilot's decision to operate into a known area of adverse weather, which resulted in the inadvertent penetration of a severe thunderstorm, a subsequent loss of control, and in-flight breakup of the airplane.Jul 8, 2012 · N4386F · Substantial damageNTSB ERA12FA376Accident · 1 fatalField investigationFinal reportHawker Beechcraft A36 · Macon, MSThe pilot's decision to continue flight into an area of known thunderstorms, which resulted in an in-flight breakup. Contributing to the accident was the pilot's lack of experience in actual instrument meteorological conditions and his reliance on datalink…May 31, 2012 · N976S · Substantial damageNTSB CEN12LA307Accident · 1 fatalLimited investigationFinal reportDial David L Titan Tornado II · Checotah, OKThe noncertificated pilot's loss of airplane control while maneuvering during initial climb, which resulted in an aerodynamic stall and impact with terrain. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s ostentatious display.May 19, 2012 · N158TX · Substantial damageNTSB ERA09CA232Accident · Minor injuriesData collectionFinal reportCessna 177RG · Ocean Isle Beach, NCThe pilot's failure to divert to an alternate airport resulting in the total loss of engine power due to fuel exhaustion. Contributing to the accident were the pilot's incorrect determination of the fuel load prior to the flight, the lack of placards near the…Apr 4, 2009 · N1838Q · Substantial damage
See all 11 cases
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '02021015'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.