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NTSB finding · Personnel issues › Experience/knowledge › Training

All 8 cases4 in the probable cause
Cases
8
In the probable cause
4 (50%)
Fatal cases
4
NTSB code
02031500

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026

Where

Open the map
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '02031500') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Defining events
Aircraft models

Aircraft matched to the registry by N-number and date.

Other findings
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '02031500'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '02031500') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 8

NTSB ERA17FA180Accident · 2 fatalField investigationFinal reportBeech A36TC · Hopkinsville, KYThe noninstrument-rated pilot's intentional visual flight rules flight into instrument meteorological conditions, which resulted in a loss of airplane control due to spatial disorientation. Contributing to the accident were the pilot's overreliance on his…May 12, 2017 · N1804E · DestroyedNTSB CEN17LA176Accident · No injuriesLimited investigationFinal reportThrush S2R-H80 · Gypsum, KSA total loss of engine power during a low-altitude agricultural application flight for reasons that could not be determined during detailed examinations. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s failure to follow the airplane manufacturer's emergency…May 5, 2017 · N3045R · Substantial damageNTSB GAA15CA153Accident · No injuriesData collectionFinal reportGrumman American Avn. AA 5A · Mackay, IDThe student pilot's disorientation in mountainous terrain and course deviation into a canyon, which resulted in the airplane's inability to out climb terrain and a forced landing.Jul 1, 2015 · N9887U · Substantial damageNTSB CEN14FA328Accident · 3 fatalField investigationFinal reportPiper PA 28-235 · Georgetown, COThe pilot’s inability to maintain a climb while maneuvering the airplane in high-density altitude conditions that degraded the airplane’s climb performance and his exceedance of the airplane’s critical angle-of-attack, which led to an aerodynamic stall and…Jun 30, 2014 · N8814W · DestroyedNTSB CEN14LA259Accident · Serious injuriesLimited investigationFinal reportSibley Glasair · Midlothian, TXThe pilot’s failure to maintain lateral control during the initial climb. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s failure to obtain sufficient training and experience to operate the high-performance airplane.May 24, 2014 · N4VX · DestroyedNTSB CEN13CA144Accident · No injuriesData collectionFinal reportMooney M20J · Warsaw, INThe pilot's improper recovery from a bounced landing and failure to maintain control of the airplane during a go-around maneuver. Contributing to the accident were the pilot’s complacency flying the airplane and his lack of training on bounced landing…Jan 27, 2013 · N5763H · Substantial damageNTSB ERA10LA391Accident · 1 fatalLimited investigationFinal reportTurck G L/Duflo J T SEA REY · Winter Haven, FLThe pilot's failure to maintain adequate airspeed on approach for landing, resulting in an inadvertent stall/spin and collision with water.Aug 2, 2010 · N914SR · Substantial damageNTSB CEN10FA011Accident · 2 fatalField investigationFinal reportCessna 150F · Alexandria, LAFailure of the wingman to maintain proper separation from the lead airplane during formation maneuvers. Contributing to the accident was lead's abrupt right bank and both pilots' lack of formation training.Oct 10, 2009 · N8642S · 2 aircraft · Substantial damage
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '02031500'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.