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Convective weather, general

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NTSB finding · Environmental issues › Conditions/weather/phenomena › Convective weather

All 17 cases12 in the probable cause
Cases
17
In the probable cause
12 (71%)
Fatal cases
12
NTSB code
03033000

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026

Where

Open the map
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '03033000') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Defining events
Aircraft models

Aircraft matched to the registry by N-number and date.

Other findings
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '03033000'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '03033000') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 17

NTSB CEN24FA160Accident · 1 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportPiper PA 46-350P · Hartsburg, MOThe pilot’s encounter with convective weather conditions, which resulted in a loss of airplane control, the exceedance of the airplane’s never exceed speed, and the resulting overload failure of the horizontal stabilizer and subsequent failure of the…Apr 16, 2024 · N451MA · DestroyedNTSB DCA24LA135Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportBoeing 757-232 · Lakeland, GAAn inadvertent encounter with convective turbulence that resulted in a serious injury to a flight attendant.Mar 28, 2024 · N6705Y · No damageNTSB DCA23FA428Accident · Serious injuriesClass 3 · FieldFinal reportAirbus A350-941 · Atlanta, GAThe flight crew’s unintentional encounter with rapidly developing cumulus clouds which resulted in an encounter with severe convectively induced turbulence.Aug 29, 2023 · N576DZ · Minor damageNTSB DCA23LA305Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportBoeing 737-924ER · Chicago, ILAn encounter with convectively-induced turbulence (CIT).Jun 1, 2023 · N28457 · No damageNTSB DCA23LA252Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportBoeing 777-223 · Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic Ocean)An encounter with inadvertent convective turbulence during cruise flight.Apr 22, 2023 · N770AN · No damageNTSB WPR22LA253Accident · 2 fatalClass 3 · LimitedFinal reportCessna P210N · Buffalo, WYThe pilot’s decision to continue the visual flight rules flight into localized instrument meteorological conditions, which resulted in an encounter with convective turbulence and a subsequent loss of control and in-flight breakup.Jul 14, 2022 · N731BJ · DestroyedNTSB ERA20FA118Accident · 3 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportPiper PA46 · Bishop, GAThe pilot’s encounter with a rain shower updraft and severe turbulence, which resulted in a loss of airplane control and an inflight breakup. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s reliance on outdated weather information on his in-cockpit weather…Mar 3, 2020 · N43368 · DestroyedNTSB WPR19FA123Accident · 3 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportRobinson R44 · Kailua, HIThe helicopter’s encounter with a strong downdraft or outflow boundary while operating at a higher than recommended airspeed in turbulence which resulted in a low-G condition, excessive main rotor flapping, and an in-flight breakup when the main rotor…Apr 29, 2019 · N808NV · DestroyedNTSB CEN19FA120Accident · 1 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportPiper PA28 · Lake, MSThe noninstrument-rated pilot’s loss of control while flying in dark night instrument meteorological weather conditions with convective activity, which resulted in the airplane exceeding its structural limitations and experiencing an in-flight breakup.…Apr 13, 2019 · N4890L · DestroyedNTSB ERA17FA181Accident · 4 fatalField investigationFinal reportMitsubishi MU2B · Eleuthera, BahamasThe pilot's intentional flight into an area of known icing and convective thunderstorm activity, which resulted in a loss of control of the airplane.May 15, 2017 · N220N · Destroyed
See all 17 cases
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '03033000'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.