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Sudden wind shift

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NTSB finding · Environmental issues › Conditions/weather/phenomena › Wind

All 114 cases69 in the probable cause
Cases
114
In the probable cause
69 (61%)
Fatal cases
3
NTSB code
03034010

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026

Where

Open the map
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '03034010') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Defining events
Aircraft models

Aircraft matched to the registry by N-number and date.

Other findings
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '03034010'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '03034010') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 114

NTSB WPR26LA213Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportMoose SR 2500 · Sonoma, CAThe pilot's failure to maintain airspeed during a go-around in shifting wind conditions, which resulted in an exceedance of the airplane’s critical angle of attack and an aerodynamic stall.May 27, 2026 · N135DS · Substantial damageNTSB CEN26LA181Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportHughes 369HS · Durango, COThe flight instructor’s inadequate supervision of the pilot receiving the instruction and the pilot’s improper recovery from a practice autorotation in shifting wind conditions, which resulted in a hard landing.May 7, 2026 · N926ES · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA170Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportBalony Kubicek Spol Sro BB100Z · Elk Grove, CAThe pilot’s delayed decision to deflate the balloon during a static display in windy conditions, which resulted in a loss of control and impact with a building. Contributing to the accident was the proximity of the balloon from structures during a static…Apr 27, 2026 · N355WC · Substantial damageNTSB ANC25LA109Accident · Minor injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportPiper PA-12 · Kotlik, AKThe pilot’s failure to maintain airplane control during a go-around in variable wind conditions.Sep 16, 2025 · N3816M · Substantial damageNTSB ANC25LA103Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportPiper PA-11 · Lake Louise, AKThe pilot’s encounter with gusting crosswind conditions during takeoff, which resulted in a loss of control and subsequent impact with terrain.Sep 10, 2025 · N5025H · Substantial damageNTSB CEN25LA235Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportPiper PA12 · Brush, COThe pilot’s failure to maintain directional control while performing a touch and go landing.Jul 2, 2025 · N7635H · Substantial damageNTSB CEN25LA200Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportAir Tractor AT-502 · Gibson, ARThe pilot’s loss of control during takeoff due to an encounter with a sudden wind shift.Jun 5, 2025 · N45113 · Substantial damageNTSB WPR25LA168Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportAeronca 7BCM · Port Townsend, WAThe flight instructor’s delayed remedial action and inadequate compensation for shifting wind conditions which resulted in a veer off the runway and collision with a sign.Jun 2, 2025 · N85311 · Substantial damageNTSB ANC25LA041Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportPiper PA-18A 150 · Susitna, AKThe pilot’s encounter with shifting winds during landing, which resulted in a loss of airspeed and altitude, and subsequent contact with water.May 23, 2025 · N1364C · Substantial damageNTSB CEN25LA153Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportCessna 185 · Wausau, WIThe pilot’s failure to maintain directional control while landing in shifting wind conditions.Apr 7, 2025 · N1526F · Substantial damage
See all 114 cases
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '03034010'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.