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NTSB finding category

All 504 cases388 in the probable cause
Cases
504
In the probable cause
388 (77%)
Fatal cases
161
NTSB code
04

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026

Where

Open the map
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '04') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Subcategories · 3

Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT left(f.\"findingCode\", 4) AS code, max(f.\"tier2Name\") AS name,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '04') AND f.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY cases DESC, code"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Defining events
Aircraft models

Aircraft matched to the registry by N-number and date.

Other findings
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '04'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '04') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 504

NTSB CEN26LA304Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportPiper PA-28-161 · Hudson Oaks, TXThe pilot’s loss of directional control during the rejected takeoff, which resulted in a runway excursion. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s decision to abort the takeoff after the airplane had accelerated above its normal rotation speed. Also…Sep 1, 2026 · N47899 · Substantial damageNTSB WPR26LA122Accident · Minor injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportCessna 182M · Flagstaff, AZMaintenance personnel’s decision to conduct an engine run at takeoff power in front of an active taxiway, and their failure to notify ATC, which resulted in the accident pilot’s loss of control during taxi due to an encounter with a jet blast.Mar 6, 2026 · N71518 · Substantial damageNTSB CEN25LA117Accident · No injuriesClass 3 · LimitedFinal reportVans RV-7A · Plainview, TXThe improper machining of the propeller blade bearing seat, which resulted in an inflight propeller blade fatigue failure. Contributing to the accident was the improper machining of the propeller hub and propeller blade root and machining surface quality…Mar 10, 2025 · N923ZA · Substantial damageNTSB CEN25LA101Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportCessna 177A · Farlinville, KSA loss of engine power that resulted from fuel contamination when it was treated with a 70% isopropyl alcohol solution (antiseptic) that contained water. Contributing to the accident were vague fuel treatment instructions provided by the operator.Feb 20, 2025 · N30413 · Substantial damageNTSB ANC25MA018Accident · 10 fatalClass 1 · MajorFinal reportTextron 208B · Nome, AKThe National Transportation Safety Board determines that the probable cause of this accident was the pilot’s inadequate airspeed management due to workload and degraded situation awareness and his improper inputs leading up to and during the aerodynamic…Feb 6, 2025 · N321BA · DestroyedNTSB WPR25LA089Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportLockheed C-130A · Daggett, CAAn inflight upset due to an improperly secured load that resulted in serious injuries.Feb 1, 2025 · N466TM · No damageNTSB DCA25MA108Accident · 67 fatalClass 1 · MajorFinal reportBombardier CL-600-2C10 · Washington, DCThe Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) placement of a helicopter route in close proximity to a runway approach path; their failure to regularly review and evaluate helicopter routes and available data, and their failure to act on recommendations to…Jan 30, 2025 · N709PS · 2 aircraft · DestroyedNTSB ANC25LA016Accident · No injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportPiper PA-31-350 · Fairbanks, AKThe pilot’s failure to recognize that an automated taxiway gate was closing, and the pilot’s failure stop for the closing gate.Jan 10, 2025 · N59826 · Substantial damageNTSB CEN25LA074Accident · No injuriesClass 3 · LimitedFinal reportCessna 560 · Pagosa Springs, COThe pilot’s inadequate preflight planning and poor preflight inspection and decision-making, which led to a takeoff attempt above the airplane’s certified maximum takeoff weight with snow-contaminated wings, resulting in a rejected takeoff at an airspeed…Dec 27, 2024 · N753MB · Substantial damageNTSB DCA25LA065Accident · Serious injuriesClass 3 · LimitedFinal reportUvify IFO · Orlando, FLThe remote pilot-in-command’s (RPIC’s) failure to locate the drone show center position over the physical location of the sUA, which resulted in multiple sUA colliding during the initial lift and subsequent loss of control. Contributing to the accident was…Dec 21, 2024 · UNREG · Substantial damage
See all 504 cases
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '04'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.