WPR18LA241

NTSB accident investigation · Cessna 172 · Afton, WY · August 13, 2018

Accident · Serious injuriesClass 3 · LimitedFinal report
Date
August 13, 2018, 09:08 local (15:08 UTC)
Place
Afton, WY
Injuries
3 serious
Damage
Substantial damage
Phase of flight
Maneuvering
Aircraft
N5660JCessna 172
Defining event
Maneuvering: Controlled flight into terr/obj (CFIT)
Weather
Visual (VMC) · Day
Status
Completed
Report
Approved by Office Director
Investigation class
Class 3
NTSB office
Western Pacific Region
Parties
Federal Aviaiton Administration, Textron Aviation
FAA report
20180813014199A
Case key
98164

From the NTSB’s public API. By law, NTSB reports can’t be used as evidence in lawsuits over the accident.

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Probable cause

The pilot’s failure to maintain terrain clearance after an encounter with a downdraft while maneuvering in a valley with a high-density altitude, which resulted in impact with trees and terrain.

Findings · 4

NTSB’s coded findings. Those marked are part of the probable cause; the rest are factors or other findings. Under each, the cases with the same finding.

Temp/humidity/pressure: high density altitudeEnvironmental issues › Conditions/weather/phenomena · Effect on equipmentCessna 172N: 6 casesAll aircraft: 278 casesProbable cause
Wind: downdraftEnvironmental issues › Conditions/weather/phenomena · Effect on equipmentCessna 172N: 2 casesAll aircraft: 178 casesProbable cause
Performance/control parameters: altitudeAircraft › Aircraft oper/perf/capability · Not attained/maintainedCessna 172N: 8 casesAll aircraft: 1,310 casesProbable cause

Sequence of events

The events NTSB coded, in order, by phase of flight. The defining event is the one that best describes the accident. Under each, the cases with the same event anywhere in their sequence.

Analysis

An airline transport pilot and two passengers departed on an aerial observation flight in mountainous terrain. While flying in a valley, the pilot reported that he experienced downdrafts, which made it unlikely that the airplane would clear the ridge lines in front of the airplane. The pilot performed a steep 180° left turn to exit from the high terrain. However, after completing the turn, the airplane was unable to climb over terrain and struck several trees before impacting the ground, which resulted in substantial damage to the wings and fuselage. The pilot reported no preaccident mechanical failures or malfunctions with the airplane that would have precluded normal operation. The airplane's weight and balance was calculated as about 256 pounds below the maximum gross weight limit, and the density altitude at the accident was calculated as about 8,765 ft mean sea level (msl). A weather study of the accident area identified no significant winds, turbulence, or low-level wind shear present or forecast. The study did identify a surface-based inversion that existed to about 500 ft above ground level (agl). Additionally, another pilot in a different airplane stated that moderate turbulence was present near the accident area about 18 minutes before the accident. Due to a combination of the airplane's high gross weight, a high-density altitude, a temperature inversion, maneuvering at a steep bank in order to avoid high terrain, and with potential downdrafts, the pilot dissipated the airplane's airspeed and altitude, and approached a stall. With no altitude available to increase the airspeed after the left turn and already at full power, the airplane continued to descend until it struck trees and impacted terrain.

Factual narrative

On August 13, 2018, about 0908 mountain daylight time, a Cessna 172N airplane, N5660J, was substantially damaged when it was involved in an accident near Afton, Wyoming. The airline transport pilot and two passengers sustained serious injuries. The airplane was operated as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 local aerial observation flight. According to the pilot, while conducting aerial observation of markers for a local mine in a valley next to mountainous terrain, he experienced downdrafts and the airplane lost altitude. In an attempt to exit from the high terrain, the pilot performed a 180° left turn with about 45° of bank. However, after completing the turn, the airplane's stall horn began to sound. The airplane was unable to climb over terrain and struck several trees and subsequently impacted terrain, which resulted in substantial damage to the wings and fuselage. The pilot reported no preaccident anomalies with the airplane that would have precluded normal operation. The airplane wreckage was recovered at an elevation of about 6,750 ft msl in heavily forested terrain. Using the environmental factors at the accident site, the density altitude was calculated to be about 8,765 ft msl. Additionally, aircraft performance charts indicated the airplane would have had a climb rate of about 300 ft per minute under the conditions at the accident site. Review of the weight and balance form provided by the pilot revealed that the airplane was operated at a gross weight of 2,294 pounds at takeoff, under the maximum gross takeoff weight of 2,550 pounds. The center of gravity calculation was within the specified limits. A weather study of the station models surrounding the accident area identified only light winds with variable winds of 10 knots or less and clear to scattered clouds. A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration numerical model indicated that the temperature was 18.2°C and the dew point was 1.8°C. According to the model, a surface-based inversion existed to about 500 ft agl. No low-level wind shear or significant turbulence was indicated, and the winds from 500 ft agl to the surface were calm. A search of pilot reports over the region indicated that there were no reports 3 hours before or after the accident. No SIGMETS or AIRMETS were current at the time of the accident for any turbulence, low-level wind shear, or high winds. The National Weather Service had a current AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration conditions. According to a commercial pilot who was flying about 15 miles north of the accident area, there was moderate turbulence over the mountain ridge lines. The pilot had landed about the time that the accident airplane had taken off. The Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Safety Program publication "Tips on Mountain Flying," section on ridge and pass crossing, stated that "experienced pilots recommend crossing a ridge line or pass, at the ridge elevation plus at least 1,000 ft.” The publication alsostated, "plan to be at that altitude at least three miles before reaching the ridge …This clearance zone will give you a reasonable safety zone to avoid the most severe turbulence and down drafts in windy conditions." The publication further stated "when you actually cross a ridge, you should do so at a 45° angle to the ridge. This allows you to turn away from the ridge quicker is you encounter a severe downdraft or turbulence.”

Aircraft

Registration
N5660J
Reported as
Cessna 172 (N)
Category
Airplane
Serial number
17273825
Built
1980
Airframe hours
4,418.7
Engine
Lycoming O-360-A4M, 180 horsepower, reciprocating
Damage
Substantial damage
Flight
Aerial observation · Part 91
Airworthiness certificate
Standard, Normal
Last inspection
100 hour · May 22, 2018
Departed
AFO · Afton, WY
Destination
AFO · Afton, WY
Flight plan
Company VFR
Equipment
Stall warning system

Matched to the registry by N-number and the event date; the registry’s history has gaps, so older matches can be wrong. Compare the reported make and model.

Flight crew

As NTSB recorded them. NTSB leaves out names.

Role
Pilot
Age
66
Injuries
Serious
Certificates
Airline transport, Commercial, Private, Flight instructor
Airplane ratings
Multi-engine land, Single-engine land
Instrument ratings
Helicopter, Airplane
Medical
Class 2, With waivers/limitations
Last flight review
May 2, 2016
Seat
Left
Restraint
Lap only
Flight hours
17,383 total · 2,600 in this make and model · 15,346 as pilot in command · 179 in the last 90 days · 67 in the last 30 days · 2 in the last 24 hours

Weather

Conditions
Visual (VMC) · Day
Wind
50° at 5 knots
Visibility
10 statute miles
Lowest ceiling
11,000 ft broken
Temperature
55 °F, dew point 43 °F
Altimeter
30.22 inHg
Observed at
AFO, 16 nm away

Docket · 8

The files NTSB released with the investigation on August 5, 2021, on NTSB’s docket system: statements, records, photos and specialists’ reports. 18.8 MB in all.

FAA reports on this event · 1

The FAA’s own accident and incident reports, matched to the aircraft by N-number and date.