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NTSB finding · Personnel issues › Experience/knowledge › Training

All 24 cases16 in the probable cause
Cases
24
In the probable cause
16 (67%)
Fatal cases
14
NTSB code
02031510

NTSB has coded findings and defining events since 2008. Earlier cases used its older occurrence and cause codes, so they aren’t counted here.

When and where

In green, cases where NTSB made it part of the probable cause; in gray, a factor or other finding. Findings are coded with the final report, often a year or more after the event, so the latest years are incomplete.

Cases per year

2008In the probable causeFactor only2026

Where

Open the map
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT year(c.\"eventDate\") AS year, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases,
    count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) FILTER (WHERE f.\"inProbableCause\") AS in_probable_cause
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c ON c.\"mKey\" = f.case_mkey
  WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '02031510') AND c.\"eventDate\" >= DATE '2000-01-01'
  GROUP BY 1
  ORDER BY 1"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

In the same cases

Defining events
Aircraft models

Aircraft matched to the registry by N-number and date.

Other findings
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "WITH matched AS (SELECT DISTINCT case_mkey, aircrafts_position FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' WHERE starts_with(\"findingCode\", '02031510'))
  SELECT * FROM (
  SELECT 'Defining event' AS kind, e.\"tier2Number\" AS code, max(e.\"eventTier2Name\") AS name, count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey) AS cases
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_events.parquet' e ON e.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND e.aircrafts_position = f.aircrafts_position AND e.\"isDefiningEvent\"
  WHERE e.\"tier2Number\" <> ''
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Aircraft model', a.aircraft_model_code, any_value(concat_ws(' ', m.manufacturer, m.model)), count(DISTINCT f.case_mkey)
  FROM matched f JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = f.case_mkey AND a.position = f.aircrafts_position
  LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/faa_aircraft_model.parquet' m ON m.code = a.aircraft_model_code
  WHERE a.aircraft_model_code IS NOT NULL
  GROUP BY ALL
  UNION ALL
  SELECT 'Other finding', left(g.\"findingCode\", 8), max(g.\"tier4Name\"), count(DISTINCT g.case_mkey)
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' g
  WHERE g.case_mkey IN (SELECT case_mkey FROM matched) AND NOT starts_with(g.\"findingCode\", '02031510') AND g.\"findingCode\" GLOB '[0-9][0-9]*'
  GROUP BY ALL
  )
  QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY kind ORDER BY cases DESC) <= 10
  ORDER BY kind, cases DESC"

Prints the counts as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.

Newest cases · 24

NTSB ERA25LA089Accident · Serious injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportBuckeye Dream Machine · Myakka City, FLThe non-certificated pilot’s improper decision to operate the powered parachute in close proximity to a fence, which resulted in a collision with the fence during takeoff. Also causal was the pilot’s decision to operate the powered parachute without having…Dec 21, 2024 · UNREG · No damageNTSB WPR24FA083Accident · 2 fatalClass 2 · FieldFinal reportHawker Beechcraft Hawker 900XP · Westwater, UTThe flight crew’s decision to conduct a post-maintenance stall test in an area of icing conditions, which resulted in wing contamination that significantly decreased the airplane’s critical angle of attack. Also causal was the airplane manufacturer’s lack of…Feb 7, 2024 · N900VA · DestroyedNTSB WPR24LA034Accident · Minor injuriesClass 3 · LimitedFinal reportCessna 310 · Hayden, IDThe pilot’s failure to maintain adequate airspeed and his exceedance of the airplane’s critical angle of attack, which resulted in a loss of control and subsequent stall during a precautionary landing. Contributing to the accident was the improper maintenance…Nov 13, 2023 · N86H · Substantial damageNTSB ANC23FA008Accident · 3 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportRaytheon C90A · Kaupo, HIGuardian Flight’s inadequate pilot training and performance tracking, which failed to identify and correct the pilot’s consistent lack of skill, and which resulted in the pilot’s inability to maintain his position inflight using secondary instruments to…Dec 15, 2022 · N13GZ · Substantial damageNTSB WPR22FA345Accident · 2 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportPiper PA46 · Seligman, AZThe student pilot’s continued visual flight into instrument meteorological conditions, which resulted in spatial disorientation, a loss of control, exceedance of the airplane’s design limitations, and in-flight breakup.Sep 13, 2022 · N43605 · Substantial damageNTSB ERA21LA295Accident · 2 fatalClass 3 · LimitedFinal reportRobinson Helicopter R44 II · Point Harbor, NCThe noncertificated pilot’s decision to continue visual flight rules flight into instrument meteorological conditions, which resulted in spatial disorientation over a large body of water and a high velocity impact with the water. Contributing to the accident…Jul 19, 2021 · N4529J · DestroyedNTSB ERA21LA272Accident · Minor injuriesClass 4 · LimitedFinal reportBell 47G-2A-1 · Brasstown, NCThe pilot’s inflight loss of control while conducting a hovering maneuver.Jun 28, 2021 · N147AH · Substantial damageNTSB WPR21FA143Accident · 5 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportAirbus Helicopters AS350-B3 · Palmer, AKThe pilot’s failure to adequately respond to an encounter with whiteout conditions, which resulted in the helicopter’s collision with terrain. Contributing to the accident was the (1) operator’s inadequate pilot training program and pilot competency checks,…Mar 28, 2021 · N351SH · Substantial damageNTSB CEN20LA272Accident · 1 fatalClass 3 · LimitedFinal reportGolden Circle Air T-Bird · Grosse Ile, MIThe noncertificated pilot’s failure to maintain clearance from trees while maneuvering at low altitude in gusting wind conditions. Contributing to the accident was the pilot’s lack of flight experience.Jul 11, 2020 · N50JH · Substantial damageNTSB CEN20FA098Accident · 1 fatalClass 3 · FieldFinal reportInnovator Mosquitto · North Manchester, INThe pilot’s loss of control for reasons that could not be determined based on the available information.Feb 23, 2020 · N840GS · Substantial damage
See all 24 cases
Query with SQL
duckdb -csv -c "SELECT c.\"ntsbNumber\", c.\"eventDate\", c.\"eventType\", c.\"eventCity\", c.\"eventStateOrRegion\", a.n_number, a.\"aircraftMake\", a.\"aircraftModel\", c.\"highestInjuryLevel\", c.\"totalFatal\", c.\"completionStatus\", c.report_url
  FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_case_detail.parquet' c LEFT JOIN 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_aircrafts.parquet' a ON a.case_mkey = c.\"mKey\" AND a.position = 1
  WHERE c.\"mKey\" IN (SELECT f.case_mkey FROM 'https://openairdocs.org/data/latest/ntsb_findings.parquet' f WHERE starts_with(f.\"findingCode\", '02031510'))
  ORDER BY c.\"eventDate\" DESC, c.\"ntsbNumber\" DESC"

Prints the whole list as CSV. It reads the release’s Parquet files over HTTPS, so there’s nothing to download first. Install DuckDB to run it.